OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
HPK Crash Indicator
From Hari P. Krishnan's book, The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting after a Market Sell-Off:
"We start by specifying the year on year (YoY) change in the index. Next, we calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of the YoY returns. We also calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of 1 month historical volatility for the index, using daily returns. Our crisis warning indicator flashes if both Z scores are above 2. In other words, recent price increases and current volatility need to be at least 2 standard deviations above normal.
It can be seen that this basic implementation is reasonably effective, accepting that the effective sample set is small. A false signal is given in mid-2006, but the signal is quickly washed away. The remaining signals occur fairly close to the point of collapse. The idea that elevated volatility is predictive of danger is not new and underpins many asset allocation schemes. However, Sornette deserves credit for moving away from a largely valuation-based approach to predicting crises to one that relies upon price action itself."
"We start by specifying the year on year (YoY) change in the index. Next, we calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of the YoY returns. We also calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of 1 month historical volatility for the index, using daily returns. Our crisis warning indicator flashes if both Z scores are above 2. In other words, recent price increases and current volatility need to be at least 2 standard deviations above normal.
It can be seen that this basic implementation is reasonably effective, accepting that the effective sample set is small. A false signal is given in mid-2006, but the signal is quickly washed away. The remaining signals occur fairly close to the point of collapse. The idea that elevated volatility is predictive of danger is not new and underpins many asset allocation schemes. However, Sornette deserves credit for moving away from a largely valuation-based approach to predicting crises to one that relies upon price action itself."
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.