Prospect Theory Indicator

29 juil.

Prospect Theory Indicator

This indicator is designed based on Prospect Theory, which was developed by Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Prospect Theory explains how people make decisions involving risk and uncertainty, highlighting their tendency to value potential losses more than equivalent gains and their focus on relative gains and losses rather than absolute outcomes.

Features:

1. Reference Points: The indicator calculates and displays the highest and lowest prices over a specified period (default is 14 periods). These are the reference points used to evaluate current price movements.
2. Risk/Reward Ratio: It calculates the risk/reward ratio by comparing the current price to the reference points. The risk is defined as the distance to the lowest point, and the reward as the distance to the highest point.
3. Visual Indicators:
• Green Line: Indicates the highest reference point (High Reference Point).
• Red Line: Indicates the lowest reference point (Low Reference Point).
• Green Triangle: Displays when the reward outweighs the risk, suggesting a favorable condition for entering a trade.
• Red Triangle: Displays when the risk outweighs the reward, suggesting a cautious approach.
4. Labels: Provides real-time labels showing the risk/reward ratio, and marks the current conditions as “High Risk” or “High Reward” based on the calculated ratio.

Usage:

• Entry Signals: Use green triangles for potential buy entries when the reward is higher than the risk.
• Exit Signals: Use red triangles as a signal to review your positions, as the risk has become higher than the reward.
• Risk Management: Continuously monitor the risk/reward ratio to maintain optimal risk management in your trading strategy.

This indicator helps traders make more informed and objective decisions, mitigating the emotional biases described by Prospect Theory.