Apple Forecast Trade Idea
Apple is consumer-centric, and is highly transactional, with less than 10% of its revenues and profits being recurring - meaning it could be vulnerable to a downturn. While it's still too early to call what the iPhone 14 cycle might look like, we continue to believe that AAPL may have "over-earned" in FY 21 (and FY 22) amid work/ learn from home and strong consumer spending, which could reverse, particularly as consumers' spending priorities change,” the analyst added.
Some analyst told that Apple's share price is over value, but based on my prediction, it has the potential to break through next resistance level at $183 per share.
While investor concerns mostly center on the effect of high inflation and iPhone demand, Evercore’s Amit Daryanani believes that despite data points skewing to the negative – these include weak Chinese smartphone data (-9%), App Store growth slowing down to ~4%, and companies such as Micron noting “weakness” in smartphone/PC demand – AAPL has provided a conservative enough guide which will allow for another beat (although possibly a more modest one compared to prior ones) in the June quarter.
The Street is looking for ~1.4% growth, a display Daryanani believes should not be difficult to meet. While Apple did not give revenue guidance for the quarter, the company did suggest the quarter’s growth rate would have mirrored the March quarter (+9%), if not for several headwinds including an FX hit to the tune of 300bps, 150bps from Russia, and $4-$8 billion in supply constraints.
However, the analyst notes that Apple has “tended to overestimate supply headwinds over the past few quarters,” and therefore believes it is possible the supply and FX issues are “less severe than Apple assumed.”
That said, all eyes will be on the September quarter guide and here Daryanani is not quite so confident. Due to the “challenging f/x environment and evolving macro situation,” Daryanani thinks there’s potential for the September quarter guide to “qualitatively be below current expectations.”
As such, while the analyst has made no changes to the June quarter forecast, the September quarter estimates are lowered to revenue/EPS of $88 billion/$1.28, respectively. Both are below Street expectations, which stand at $90.3 billion/$1.32.
My personal portfolio still struggling and I believe it will recover soon as most the Top 30 US Companies were making a correction phase right now.
Check out my trading stats on eToro.com | etoro.tw/2FnBxiQ
If you have a plan to copy my trades, please stay with me for at least 6 months and the best is up to 1 year in order to get a reasonable return on your investment
✅it is good to copy my open trades if my current position is still in negative....and I would like to advise you to avoid from a copy my open trades if the positions are already in profit...
✅You can start with a minimum capital of $500, however, the best allocation is 1000usd in order to optimize the return. If you allocate more, then you will get more😀
✅Set your Stop Loss Level at 60% out of your Initial Capital in order to minimize the risk.
Overall My Trading Performance :
✅ Jan - Dec 2019 = 22%
✅ Jan - Dec 2020 = 43%
✅ Jan - Dec 2021 = 14%
✅ Appointed as PopularInvestor in March 2019
✅Appointed as Champion Level on Dec 2020
✅ 75 copiers
✅ 50kusd- 100kusd usd Asset Under Management (AUM)
✅ 3800 followers on the Etoro Social Trading Platform
✅ Average Risk Level = Level 4
🚫🚫Disclaimer:
Please take note that
"Past performance does not guarantee future results"
✅However, I am using technical analysis + fundamental analysis on each of my open position and using X1 leverage to minimize the risk.
✳️Lastly, do not expect to get a great return if you cannot be patient with it😀😀😀
Slowly but surely…..
Mustaqim Mazuky
Champion Popular Investor
Malaysia
Some analyst told that Apple's share price is over value, but based on my prediction, it has the potential to break through next resistance level at $183 per share.
While investor concerns mostly center on the effect of high inflation and iPhone demand, Evercore’s Amit Daryanani believes that despite data points skewing to the negative – these include weak Chinese smartphone data (-9%), App Store growth slowing down to ~4%, and companies such as Micron noting “weakness” in smartphone/PC demand – AAPL has provided a conservative enough guide which will allow for another beat (although possibly a more modest one compared to prior ones) in the June quarter.
The Street is looking for ~1.4% growth, a display Daryanani believes should not be difficult to meet. While Apple did not give revenue guidance for the quarter, the company did suggest the quarter’s growth rate would have mirrored the March quarter (+9%), if not for several headwinds including an FX hit to the tune of 300bps, 150bps from Russia, and $4-$8 billion in supply constraints.
However, the analyst notes that Apple has “tended to overestimate supply headwinds over the past few quarters,” and therefore believes it is possible the supply and FX issues are “less severe than Apple assumed.”
That said, all eyes will be on the September quarter guide and here Daryanani is not quite so confident. Due to the “challenging f/x environment and evolving macro situation,” Daryanani thinks there’s potential for the September quarter guide to “qualitatively be below current expectations.”
As such, while the analyst has made no changes to the June quarter forecast, the September quarter estimates are lowered to revenue/EPS of $88 billion/$1.28, respectively. Both are below Street expectations, which stand at $90.3 billion/$1.32.
My personal portfolio still struggling and I believe it will recover soon as most the Top 30 US Companies were making a correction phase right now.
Check out my trading stats on eToro.com | etoro.tw/2FnBxiQ
If you have a plan to copy my trades, please stay with me for at least 6 months and the best is up to 1 year in order to get a reasonable return on your investment
✅it is good to copy my open trades if my current position is still in negative....and I would like to advise you to avoid from a copy my open trades if the positions are already in profit...
✅You can start with a minimum capital of $500, however, the best allocation is 1000usd in order to optimize the return. If you allocate more, then you will get more😀
✅Set your Stop Loss Level at 60% out of your Initial Capital in order to minimize the risk.
Overall My Trading Performance :
✅ Jan - Dec 2019 = 22%
✅ Jan - Dec 2020 = 43%
✅ Jan - Dec 2021 = 14%
✅ Appointed as PopularInvestor in March 2019
✅Appointed as Champion Level on Dec 2020
✅ 75 copiers
✅ 50kusd- 100kusd usd Asset Under Management (AUM)
✅ 3800 followers on the Etoro Social Trading Platform
✅ Average Risk Level = Level 4
🚫🚫Disclaimer:
Please take note that
"Past performance does not guarantee future results"
✅However, I am using technical analysis + fundamental analysis on each of my open position and using X1 leverage to minimize the risk.
✳️Lastly, do not expect to get a great return if you cannot be patient with it😀😀😀
Slowly but surely…..
Mustaqim Mazuky
Champion Popular Investor
Malaysia
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.