28/03/2024 AUDUSD 4HR analysis
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I based this idea on both fundamental and technical analysis following a 4HR trading period. Analysis is explain below.
Technicals used:
1. Price action
2. MACD
3. RSI
4. Trendline
5. Candlestick Pattern
6. Comparison to the DXY
Fundamentals referred:
1. 28/3 AUS: Retail sales MoM prel
2. 28/3 USD: GDP Growth Rate QOQ Final
3. 28/3 USD: Initial Jobless Claims
4. 29/3 USD: Core PCE price Index MoM
5. 29/3 USD: Personal Income MoM
6. 29/3 USD: Personal Spending MoM
7. 29/3 USD: Powell Speech
Technicals explained:
1. Price action: currently the price has rejected the sellside liquidity zone at 0.65112.
2. MACD: Current first lows on both price action and MACD following a lower low on price action and higher low on MACD can incur a bullish divergence within the next two days.
3. RSI: RSI currently hovering on the mid-line. No indicative movement to either sides.
4. Trendline: AUDUSD currently on a bullish trendline after rejecting sellside liquidity at 0.64435. Candlestick pattern currently rejecting bearish direction as previous candlesticks since 19/3 is hovering at the bottom of the trendline.
5. Candlestick pattern: Potentially forming an inverted M pattern.
6. Comparison to DXY: M pattern detected as rejected buyside liquidity at 104.42.
- Technicals indicates a bullish reversal. Question is when?
Fundamentals explained (Keeping this one shorter and not in-depth):
1. AUS data leaning towards lower retail sales, lower demand, lower future inflation so I am expecting a slight drop below trendline to 0.6507 and potentially to 0.6485.
2. 28/3 USD's data leaning towards a weaker us dollar, reversing the drop in previous AUS news and pushing AUSUSD higher to at least 0.657.
3. Price could consolidate at the 0.6553 - 0.6574 range.
4. 29/3 USD's data leaning towards a weaker us dollar as well which could push price higher than 0.664 (Given that it is big news, I'm expecting it to be volatile).
5. Fed Powell's speech could consolidate price movement in the 0.6648 - 0.6669 range first. I am not convinced with 3 rate cuts this year.
- Fundamentals indicates a potential drop first, then a reversal, suggesting the when.
Considering both technical and fundamental analysis, I am convinced the AUDUSD will be bullish up till at least w/c 1/4.
Technicals used:
1. Price action
2. MACD
3. RSI
4. Trendline
5. Candlestick Pattern
6. Comparison to the DXY
Fundamentals referred:
1. 28/3 AUS: Retail sales MoM prel
2. 28/3 USD: GDP Growth Rate QOQ Final
3. 28/3 USD: Initial Jobless Claims
4. 29/3 USD: Core PCE price Index MoM
5. 29/3 USD: Personal Income MoM
6. 29/3 USD: Personal Spending MoM
7. 29/3 USD: Powell Speech
Technicals explained:
1. Price action: currently the price has rejected the sellside liquidity zone at 0.65112.
2. MACD: Current first lows on both price action and MACD following a lower low on price action and higher low on MACD can incur a bullish divergence within the next two days.
3. RSI: RSI currently hovering on the mid-line. No indicative movement to either sides.
4. Trendline: AUDUSD currently on a bullish trendline after rejecting sellside liquidity at 0.64435. Candlestick pattern currently rejecting bearish direction as previous candlesticks since 19/3 is hovering at the bottom of the trendline.
5. Candlestick pattern: Potentially forming an inverted M pattern.
6. Comparison to DXY: M pattern detected as rejected buyside liquidity at 104.42.
- Technicals indicates a bullish reversal. Question is when?
Fundamentals explained (Keeping this one shorter and not in-depth):
1. AUS data leaning towards lower retail sales, lower demand, lower future inflation so I am expecting a slight drop below trendline to 0.6507 and potentially to 0.6485.
2. 28/3 USD's data leaning towards a weaker us dollar, reversing the drop in previous AUS news and pushing AUSUSD higher to at least 0.657.
3. Price could consolidate at the 0.6553 - 0.6574 range.
4. 29/3 USD's data leaning towards a weaker us dollar as well which could push price higher than 0.664 (Given that it is big news, I'm expecting it to be volatile).
5. Fed Powell's speech could consolidate price movement in the 0.6648 - 0.6669 range first. I am not convinced with 3 rate cuts this year.
- Fundamentals indicates a potential drop first, then a reversal, suggesting the when.
Considering both technical and fundamental analysis, I am convinced the AUDUSD will be bullish up till at least w/c 1/4.
Note
AUS news had no effect on price movement, Fundamental (1) is inapplicable. I am not expecting any drop to 0.6507. However, a wick to 0.6515 is possible.Note
Key points:1. Lower volume on AUDUSD, I expect a reversal to bullish after USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final news.
2. GB fundamentals news should have been involved in this analysis. A weaker GBP lead to a stronger DXY, weaker AUD.
Note
Delayed expectations, still bullish on this pair.
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