FlowState

AUD/USD: Negative Sentiment, Punished by Domestics & Risk Proxy

Short
FX:AUDUSD   Dollar Australien/Dollar Américain
The Australian Dollar depicts a negative picture, with an extension of the downtrend into fresh year lows confirmed via an elongated bearish bar closing with barely any profit-taking and to make matters worse, it carries significant tick volume, highest since Aug 10. It's interesting to see the Aussie losing value despite the steadiness in its correlated assets, currently showing divergence with the chine yuan, gold, the dxy or the overall risk, although it won't be wise to fake the down move. The reason being is that the currency has been recently hit, not just by international affairs (emerging markets, full-blown China vs US trade war edging closer) but also domestically, with the latest misses in Capex, housing data or higher mortgage rates reinforcing the noting that the RBA may kick the can down the road by staying neutral way beyond 2019, and should the deterioration in household debt put further constraints in the economy, don't dispel a potential rate cut.

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