#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - alibaba #4
Good Day and I hope you are well. A quick one on #baba again
Alibaba
Quote from last post:
comment: The stock did almost exactly what I said it would. Last trade was good for 5$ or 6%. Market also turned 2$ above the monthly 20ema. So what is next? The two legged correction I have drawn is from 2024-05-14 and currently is going a bit deeper than expected but still valid. Market has to stay above 67 to make a higher low. Which would be a great entry for longs, once it turns again. I have drawn the bear channel on the daily chart, because the bear channel needs to be broken before you think about longs on this one. Could happen next week or the week after. Selling below 70/75 is bad any way you put it. Market just made a strong move again and another will likely follow. Bears are in their third push down and could see a two legged correction soon again, if not a major trend reversal for 100.
current market cycle: trading range at the lows
key levels: 63 - 120
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above.
Bull Invalidation is below 67.
Bear Invalidation is above 77.
short term: Neutral until bear channel is broken and bullish above 76 for 85 or higher again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then.
Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
Alibaba
Quote from last post:
"The stock found it's bottom and points upwards. Many tails around the 68/70 area below and big bull bars now appearing. The monthly 20ema will most likely be hit soon, where I expect a pull-back to then break above to the 100$ level again. China is printing again and from a technical perspective the stock has seen the worst days IMO. Can see 120 over the next 6-12 months again. Where you put your stop? Probably 80 or you want to hold for longer term and scale in lower."
comment: The stock did almost exactly what I said it would. Last trade was good for 5$ or 6%. Market also turned 2$ above the monthly 20ema. So what is next? The two legged correction I have drawn is from 2024-05-14 and currently is going a bit deeper than expected but still valid. Market has to stay above 67 to make a higher low. Which would be a great entry for longs, once it turns again. I have drawn the bear channel on the daily chart, because the bear channel needs to be broken before you think about longs on this one. Could happen next week or the week after. Selling below 70/75 is bad any way you put it. Market just made a strong move again and another will likely follow. Bears are in their third push down and could see a two legged correction soon again, if not a major trend reversal for 100.
current market cycle: trading range at the lows
key levels: 63 - 120
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above.
Bull Invalidation is below 67.
Bear Invalidation is above 77.
short term: Neutral until bear channel is broken and bullish above 76 for 85 or higher again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then.
Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
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