My main conditions to enter a Bitcoin long position.
Mis à jour
Hello everyone! Welcome to my first publication on tradingview. Here is my story, my preparation and my plan for the next year or so.
This idea is meant to be an easy system for people who babysit kids in stead of positions or have a hard time filtering the noise in the market in order to find a decent entry into a long position. Its mainly a tool to show friends and family how I personally want to pick my next entry. Off course I welcome all of you to give your opinion and tell me why this is a horrible or good system. I'm not a professional analyst, trader or investor. I'm a noob and following this idea is at your own risk. I can only say I'm confident enough to use it as a guideline for myself.
As many people I bought my first Bitcoin at the end of the bullrun in oktober 2018, my second mistake. I had been told about Bitcoin in 2012 but didn't look into it much at the time and forgot about it, that was the first mistake. The gains that were made in the first 2/3 months quickly vanished when I bought altcoins and held onto them for too long. It took a while for me to get a more healthy view on the market and change my bias. Determined to make better decisions I studied a lot and started following youtube heroes such as Jacob Canfield, Krown's Crypto Cave, Tone Vays and Willy Woo, Cryptosomniac and Naeem Al-obaidi. They helped me understand this market (to a certain degree). Buying in at 6100 mid 2018 didn't look that great though when it crashed at the end of november 2018. In hindsight the signals were crystal clear but I failed to see the reality. I was biased and emotional and I didn't really have a solid framework. But I reckoned that the 200 weekly sma would be a great entry point if bitcoin was to act as it did in the previous cycle. Buy at 200 sma, let history repeat itself, and most importantly: let the market come to me and forget everything else (especially the news and every sub 3000 prediction). That was the plan. If price were to fall below the 200 sma and close a 12h candle I was going to close the position manually. No emotions, just reasoning, patience and big balls. Finally I got it right! I then added to my position during the following 2 re-accumulation zones around 5500 and 8000. My last action was selling half of it at 10300 which is not great but hey its not that bad either.
Today its safe to say the fiat bottom is in and it's very possible that we will have to wait a complete cycle before we get a similar situation as on the 16th of december 2018, even though we are currently aiming for the 200 ema again. I move my buy-orders with these moving averages at this moment. Once filled we cut our losses if bitcoin was to close a 12 hour candle below the 200 sma. If not we are golden ;)
So the guideline for catching the bottom is buying at the 200 weekly ema or 200 weekly sma, whichever one is the lowest at the time. A buy at the lowest one should give you the best entry but basically any entry between these 2 moving averages has been great in bitcoins history. These touches are highlighted by the grey and yellow arrows on the chart.
Those that missed the bottom and/or still got some fiat left need to spot a period of re-accumulation before dumping their bolivars into Bitcoin. You don't want to get into a position when the price just mooned, is crashing or is trading in between the moving averages and thus undecided on direction. The following system for entry isn't going to give the best entries but it has historically only given good signals and imho they are less risky.
First, Bitcoin has to be in a bull market. We have a bullish posture when the 10 ema, the 21 ema and the 55 ema are on top of each other. Red above yellow, above green. Simple. This is highlighted on the chart by the blue rectangles. We then look for a deeper correction. We get that when 2 subsequent weekly candles close below the red 10 ema. The close of the 2nd candle forms what i call a baseline (this is probably not the best word to describe this level but just for the sake of making a point I'm going to call it that way). This level is going to become our stop-loss level if we get a buy signal some weeks later. We try to enter after a period of accumulation so a break of this level after entry invalidates our assumptions and we have been in a period of distribution in stead of accumulation, hence our stop-loss at this level. We get the buy signal when Bitcoin can close above the red 10 ema and also close at least 2 of the next 3 candles above the 10 ema. We buy on the close of the fourth candle, highlighted on the chart by the green arrows.
In order to follow this system one only has to watch the price of bitcoin once a week on Sunday evening which is great for those who don't have the time to follow the market closely, or their positions in particular. The aim is to hold the position until the next top. Catching the top will be the hardest part of the trade but you will know for sure you missed it when the red 10 ema crosses the yellow 21 ema. Historic trendlines could possibly give us a clue, they most probably will be of some value in determining a local top or bottom, or even the next ATH.
As of now my best guess is that the Bitcoin price models on Woobull.com will be the main chart to look at for guessing the top. My crystal ball however told me that the next top is at 115.000 USD and the following bottom at 27.000. These targets are derived from Plan B's stock 2 flow model, being an overshoot of 2x the model price and a dump to around half the model price. We'll have to see how that works out. I will in the future make a post when I believe the top is in. I will also update the chart when a buy signal occurs.
That's it for now. Thanks for reading and please comment, I would really appreciate your opinion. I don't give a fk about likes though.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/N6qByd2L/
This idea is meant to be an easy system for people who babysit kids in stead of positions or have a hard time filtering the noise in the market in order to find a decent entry into a long position. Its mainly a tool to show friends and family how I personally want to pick my next entry. Off course I welcome all of you to give your opinion and tell me why this is a horrible or good system. I'm not a professional analyst, trader or investor. I'm a noob and following this idea is at your own risk. I can only say I'm confident enough to use it as a guideline for myself.
As many people I bought my first Bitcoin at the end of the bullrun in oktober 2018, my second mistake. I had been told about Bitcoin in 2012 but didn't look into it much at the time and forgot about it, that was the first mistake. The gains that were made in the first 2/3 months quickly vanished when I bought altcoins and held onto them for too long. It took a while for me to get a more healthy view on the market and change my bias. Determined to make better decisions I studied a lot and started following youtube heroes such as Jacob Canfield, Krown's Crypto Cave, Tone Vays and Willy Woo, Cryptosomniac and Naeem Al-obaidi. They helped me understand this market (to a certain degree). Buying in at 6100 mid 2018 didn't look that great though when it crashed at the end of november 2018. In hindsight the signals were crystal clear but I failed to see the reality. I was biased and emotional and I didn't really have a solid framework. But I reckoned that the 200 weekly sma would be a great entry point if bitcoin was to act as it did in the previous cycle. Buy at 200 sma, let history repeat itself, and most importantly: let the market come to me and forget everything else (especially the news and every sub 3000 prediction). That was the plan. If price were to fall below the 200 sma and close a 12h candle I was going to close the position manually. No emotions, just reasoning, patience and big balls. Finally I got it right! I then added to my position during the following 2 re-accumulation zones around 5500 and 8000. My last action was selling half of it at 10300 which is not great but hey its not that bad either.
Today its safe to say the fiat bottom is in and it's very possible that we will have to wait a complete cycle before we get a similar situation as on the 16th of december 2018, even though we are currently aiming for the 200 ema again. I move my buy-orders with these moving averages at this moment. Once filled we cut our losses if bitcoin was to close a 12 hour candle below the 200 sma. If not we are golden ;)
So the guideline for catching the bottom is buying at the 200 weekly ema or 200 weekly sma, whichever one is the lowest at the time. A buy at the lowest one should give you the best entry but basically any entry between these 2 moving averages has been great in bitcoins history. These touches are highlighted by the grey and yellow arrows on the chart.
Those that missed the bottom and/or still got some fiat left need to spot a period of re-accumulation before dumping their bolivars into Bitcoin. You don't want to get into a position when the price just mooned, is crashing or is trading in between the moving averages and thus undecided on direction. The following system for entry isn't going to give the best entries but it has historically only given good signals and imho they are less risky.
First, Bitcoin has to be in a bull market. We have a bullish posture when the 10 ema, the 21 ema and the 55 ema are on top of each other. Red above yellow, above green. Simple. This is highlighted on the chart by the blue rectangles. We then look for a deeper correction. We get that when 2 subsequent weekly candles close below the red 10 ema. The close of the 2nd candle forms what i call a baseline (this is probably not the best word to describe this level but just for the sake of making a point I'm going to call it that way). This level is going to become our stop-loss level if we get a buy signal some weeks later. We try to enter after a period of accumulation so a break of this level after entry invalidates our assumptions and we have been in a period of distribution in stead of accumulation, hence our stop-loss at this level. We get the buy signal when Bitcoin can close above the red 10 ema and also close at least 2 of the next 3 candles above the 10 ema. We buy on the close of the fourth candle, highlighted on the chart by the green arrows.
In order to follow this system one only has to watch the price of bitcoin once a week on Sunday evening which is great for those who don't have the time to follow the market closely, or their positions in particular. The aim is to hold the position until the next top. Catching the top will be the hardest part of the trade but you will know for sure you missed it when the red 10 ema crosses the yellow 21 ema. Historic trendlines could possibly give us a clue, they most probably will be of some value in determining a local top or bottom, or even the next ATH.
As of now my best guess is that the Bitcoin price models on Woobull.com will be the main chart to look at for guessing the top. My crystal ball however told me that the next top is at 115.000 USD and the following bottom at 27.000. These targets are derived from Plan B's stock 2 flow model, being an overshoot of 2x the model price and a dump to around half the model price. We'll have to see how that works out. I will in the future make a post when I believe the top is in. I will also update the chart when a buy signal occurs.
That's it for now. Thanks for reading and please comment, I would really appreciate your opinion. I don't give a fk about likes though.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/N6qByd2L/
Note
Close up https://www.tradingview.com/x/a8Jlauu5/Note
Looks like you can't zoom in on the chart and I don't know how to post snapshots either. If someone could help that would be great.
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