Oil in a depressed phase

16 mai

The Brent barrel (Brent) this week has cut its price by -1.05% versus -491% on a monthly basis, versus West Texas (LCrude). Crude oil prices rose 32 cents during the American afternoon session for Brent and 31 cents higher for West Texas Intermediate.
More subdued inflation, much weaker retail sales, coupled with lower-than-expected U.S. consumer prices in April, triggered a boost in financial market expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could moderate dollar strength and make oil more affordable for holders of other currencies.

Prices have also been affected by the fact that the long-awaited reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories has brought some peace despite the fact that the Middle East conflict continues to reproduce and generate distribution problems. According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. inventories of crude oil, gasoline and distillates fell, reflected in an increase in refining activity and fuel demand. Inventory figures fell to 2.5 million barrels to 457 million in the week to May 10, versus the 543,000 expected. There have also been possible signs of slowing US inflation and strengthening price-supported demand, as well as we say geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz area remains elevated. In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that is generating a redistribution and increase in the cost per barrel to Europe.

The fact that the news is showing a shortage may simply be a rash of geopolitical risk and failed negotiations between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and Russia. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia have reduced their production volumes. One of the reasons is purely geopolitical but the more important reason is purely economic, the world economy remains weak and with it the demand for oil. The world's leading economy is on the borderline of a coma to go into recession, and although the second largest economy, China, is growing in GDP, it does not mean that it will have the same dynamism as before 2020. This depresses the outlook for demand and therefore the price.

Looking at the chart, it can be seen that the support zone of Brent barrel is located at $71.47 and the resistance to be overcome is located at $95.12. The constant fall in the price has been gradual, so we may continue to see a decline towards the long term support in the coming weeks if the geo-economic picture does not change much.

Ion Jauregui - Analista AT



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