Sorry Bulls, Bitcoin Lower Before It Goes Higher

The BTCUSD price is much more likely to search for support in the $48k-53k area than to continue the trend higher. Trading volume has dropped off considerably in the past week. Also, nearly every commodities market has pulled back in the past week. The possibility of a broad-based market selloff also poses a risk to bitcoin. Equities are higher on lower volume and showing trend divergences on several different indicators. Should equities follow commodities lower in the next 1-2 weeks, bitcoin will most likely sell off until it reaches a value area where it has spent much more time trading. I also see increased institutional involvement in bitcoin as presenting a risk for more aggressive selloffs. Institutional investors follow strict risk management parameters. In other words, they don't 'HODL' when the market turns against them. They get out or they cover.