BTC FIB Channel - Will History Repeat & BTC Rally?
Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD.
Before I start I want to mention that the stock market had a terrible day today. For Walmart it was the worst day since I believe the 1980's, for the Nasdaq the worst in a couple years. BTC is currently closely correlated to the Nasdaq. So even if BTC looks strong from a technical standpoint but the Nasdaq has a bad day, BTC will follow and dump. This is making it very difficult to judge what BTC will do... I am doing my best to try and focus more on using the Nasdaq as my gauge for BTC instead of just BTC by itself. - I just wanted to fill you guys in, so keep an eye on the Nasdaq and tech stocks.
- Also be cautious right now and trade with small positions until BTC stabilizes.
First, not much has changed from my analysis yesterday. BTC still continues to trade within the current range.
- One important thing to note is that BTC retested support at 28.6K and as of this writing has gotten a small bounce from that level.
- If this level can hold that will be a very positive signal for BTC.
On to the analysis... I'm going to keep this short for tonight.
As you know BTC is currently trading within a parallel channel, I spoke about this in my post yesterday.
- One of my favorite tools is the FIB Channel tool.
- As you can see it really brings the chart to life and shows us the FIB levels within the channel.
- This tool is great because we can use it to find confluence between different FIB levels in the chart and we can see how price has interacted with those levels in the past.
- If you notice, each time price either entered or hit the bottom of the channel price rallied at minimum to the .786, on one occasion breaking through.
Essentially:
- 75% of the time that price hit the bottom price hit the .786 FIB
- 25% of the time price broke through.
***Of course nothing is guaranteed in trading, but if you are in a long position you can use this to help determine a max upside target if BTC was to bounce off the bottom of the channel.
- The .786 level actually nearly intersects with the "ascending trend line" which yesterday I stated was my max upside target for BTC during a pump.
- One thing to note was that from the bottom of the channel to the .786 at minimum took 2 weeks to hit, sometimes taking as long as a month.
- So if this was to play out it could take a few more weeks.
That's it, I will keep everyone update as always and best of luck trading.
Before I start I want to mention that the stock market had a terrible day today. For Walmart it was the worst day since I believe the 1980's, for the Nasdaq the worst in a couple years. BTC is currently closely correlated to the Nasdaq. So even if BTC looks strong from a technical standpoint but the Nasdaq has a bad day, BTC will follow and dump. This is making it very difficult to judge what BTC will do... I am doing my best to try and focus more on using the Nasdaq as my gauge for BTC instead of just BTC by itself. - I just wanted to fill you guys in, so keep an eye on the Nasdaq and tech stocks.
- Also be cautious right now and trade with small positions until BTC stabilizes.
First, not much has changed from my analysis yesterday. BTC still continues to trade within the current range.
- One important thing to note is that BTC retested support at 28.6K and as of this writing has gotten a small bounce from that level.
- If this level can hold that will be a very positive signal for BTC.
On to the analysis... I'm going to keep this short for tonight.
As you know BTC is currently trading within a parallel channel, I spoke about this in my post yesterday.
- One of my favorite tools is the FIB Channel tool.
- As you can see it really brings the chart to life and shows us the FIB levels within the channel.
- This tool is great because we can use it to find confluence between different FIB levels in the chart and we can see how price has interacted with those levels in the past.
- If you notice, each time price either entered or hit the bottom of the channel price rallied at minimum to the .786, on one occasion breaking through.
Essentially:
- 75% of the time that price hit the bottom price hit the .786 FIB
- 25% of the time price broke through.
***Of course nothing is guaranteed in trading, but if you are in a long position you can use this to help determine a max upside target if BTC was to bounce off the bottom of the channel.
- The .786 level actually nearly intersects with the "ascending trend line" which yesterday I stated was my max upside target for BTC during a pump.
- One thing to note was that from the bottom of the channel to the .786 at minimum took 2 weeks to hit, sometimes taking as long as a month.
- So if this was to play out it could take a few more weeks.
That's it, I will keep everyone update as always and best of luck trading.
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