Think like a margin trader
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Sure, fundamentals and whales drive the big-picture price action in this market. Everyone knows that. But what drives short term swings and intermediate price action? Margin traders. I'm not the kind of degenerate that trades on leverage, but it sure helps to think like one.
Note
If you couple this with a look at anticipated pressure from leveraged longs (solid lines), you get a more robust picture of where to expect support/resistance zones within the range: 
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