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BTC major bear signals - next major move down by next week?

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Looking at the weekly 50 MA and past 2014 bear market - overall has been playing out almost exactly step by step. If this plays out like 2014, then this latest break below the 50 weekly MA will see a retest of the breakdown at ~8200 and then a fall from grace to say ~4500 before next bounce and a slow decline to settle somewhere between $1100 and $5000 during bear market turn to accumulation... before we assume ascent to the moon.
We need to see BTC break above and stay well above 8200 in next couple weeks to prove this wrong and then make a move to break above 10k this summer otherwise bear market is in full effect and this was not just a pullback from 20k.
Note
TDSA counts are also almost identical with a red 4 versus red 3 now on weekly:
snapshot

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