XBTFX

Bitcoin: a move toward the “dead cross”?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
While markets were concerned with the increase in oil prices and its potential influence on further developments of inflation figures, the crypto market remained relatively indifferent to this news. This comes as a result of concerns whether the SEC will approve the first BTC ETF in October, or its response will be once again negative. Both probabilities have equal chances of occurrence. The final decision will impact the move of the BTC and other coins in the future period. As per current charts, the market is pricing this possibility more to the downside than to the upside.

As per technical analysis, the latest movements of the BTC price are showing current decreased confidence in this coin, however, it should be taken with precaution, taking into account historical extreme and swift moves of the coins on the crypto market. However, technical analysis is pointing that odds for the upside are quite questionable at this moment. The RSI was not able to move from the oversold side of the market for the last three weeks. Although a clear oversold side has been reached during mid-August, the RSI hardly managed to reach level of 50, and moved back to the level of 40 during the previous week. At the same time, MA50 and MA200 were moving closer toward each other, reaching the point with significantly increased probability for a so-called “dead cross” to occur in the coming period. It will take maybe a week, until this negative chart development occurs. If this happens, it would be a sign of a trend reversal to the downside, which would mean further price drop below $ 25K in the coming months. Certainly, it is too early to confirm such development, but the probability has significantly increased since the previous week.

For the moment BTC manages to hold the $ 25K support line. Actually, during the previous week the coin was moving in a range of $25.378 up to $26.444. There are significantly decreased daily trading volumes, but the price still manages to find its path to the upside. In this sense, it could be expected for the week ahead that BTC will test the $ 25K, but there is still no indication that this level could be clearly broken to the downside. At the same time, it should not be expected that a short reversal to the upside could bring any significant move. It could probably be the level of $26K for one more time.

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