The trend of bitcoin out of synin cycles

12 août 2023

The trend of bitcoin cycles out of sync has led to the current long-short stalemate

Bitcoin has been around $30,000, for nearly two months, but it has not been slow to break the deadlock, although there are the so-called benefits of Ripple, the blessing of Sister Wood, and the remarks of the richest man. But the market has been tepid, as set at $30,000.
Although in the fundamentals, we can not find any valuable reference, but from the chart, we still can see the problem.

First of all, we look at the monthly line this cycle (lower right), because the rebound from the beginning of the year, the range has doubled, so the monthly line macd also formed a golden fork, if we look at this cycle, should be entered a long cycle. But the long-term trend can only be used as a trading reference.

Next, we take a look at the weekly line (bottom left), there is a significant weekly macd top deviation trend. Although it has not fallen below ma18, ma144 is above, which is also the biggest resistance encountered by the current rebound. From the moving average system, or a short trend. So at this time there is a macd top divergence, or more dangerous. Once the ma18, do not rule out the possibility of accelerated decline. In addition, there is a system to give the form, the rising wedge, if below the lower track, the space to open, or pay attention to the defense.

Finally, we look at the daily line, macd formed a long trend, but the rebound is blocked by ma36, so so far I did not suggest everyone to enter. At the same time, we look at the system prompt, given is the abc b wave rebound, if the rebound to want to resolve, at least to break the ma36. And to confirm that wave B fails, is to break through point A, then the rising wedge will also be resolved. On the other hand, if the downward below ma144, also let b wave more certain, and downward below the lower track of the rising wedge, even below $15,000.

Through the analysis of the three cycles, we can see that the three cycles here are not synchronized, leading to the current stalemate.
So now enter, the risk is still relatively large, at least to wait until the day line to give the direction, such as upward breakthrough ma36, just have the opportunity to build a position.

I have been judging that this may be a big b wave rebound. If this logic is true, the upward space behind is relatively limited. In that case, even if you participate, you have to control the position. As for the monthly line, because the cycle is too long, it is not suitable for the standard of trading strategy.