Bitcoin: RS breakdown of inverted H&S
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Establishing the neckline:
February 21st highs established the neckline of the inverted H&S structure (orange annotations) with confluence at the 50% Fib retracement level (faint orange line) when connecting January 7th highs (top of channel) to February 6th lows (bottom of channel). Confluence was also found at the resistance level (solid orange line) which has held relevance since January 11th lows. Therefore, I have established both of these levels as the neckline ≈ 11,500.
RS formation:
Developing as a falling wedge structure, price descended to the 10,000 support and as low as 9,300 on February 25th which was near perfectly the depth of the January 17th LS. The falling wedge structure was confirmed with an upside break on February 26th 20:00 candle close. The break of structure provided confluence for an upside target at the 11,500 neckline level (broken pink arrow) which at the time of writing has near perfectly been achieved.
In the context of the inverted H&S structure, this is a critical moment that could validate the structure providing an upside break of the neckline. If achieved, this would provide confluence for an upside target at 17,000 revisiting January 7th highs with 13,000 being the final confluent resistance level above.
However, in the current ascent following the falling wedge breakout, price has been developing as a rising wedge structure that is now approaching the apex. If the structure is validated with a downside break, this would provide confluence for a downside target at 10,000 where price would form a double top structure and could fall back within the long-term parallel down channel (broken red line) adding further downside pressure. If this were to occur and the 10,000 level cannot hold support then I would consider that as invalidation of the inverted H&S structure and expect a significant sell-off down to at least 8000 with confluence provided for as low as 3000.
February 21st highs established the neckline of the inverted H&S structure (orange annotations) with confluence at the 50% Fib retracement level (faint orange line) when connecting January 7th highs (top of channel) to February 6th lows (bottom of channel). Confluence was also found at the resistance level (solid orange line) which has held relevance since January 11th lows. Therefore, I have established both of these levels as the neckline ≈ 11,500.
RS formation:
Developing as a falling wedge structure, price descended to the 10,000 support and as low as 9,300 on February 25th which was near perfectly the depth of the January 17th LS. The falling wedge structure was confirmed with an upside break on February 26th 20:00 candle close. The break of structure provided confluence for an upside target at the 11,500 neckline level (broken pink arrow) which at the time of writing has near perfectly been achieved.
In the context of the inverted H&S structure, this is a critical moment that could validate the structure providing an upside break of the neckline. If achieved, this would provide confluence for an upside target at 17,000 revisiting January 7th highs with 13,000 being the final confluent resistance level above.
However, in the current ascent following the falling wedge breakout, price has been developing as a rising wedge structure that is now approaching the apex. If the structure is validated with a downside break, this would provide confluence for a downside target at 10,000 where price would form a double top structure and could fall back within the long-term parallel down channel (broken red line) adding further downside pressure. If this were to occur and the 10,000 level cannot hold support then I would consider that as invalidation of the inverted H&S structure and expect a significant sell-off down to at least 8000 with confluence provided for as low as 3000.
Note
Note
The inverted H&S neckline has been met. 11,500 and 50% Fib retracement achieved.
Validation of the rising wedge with a downside break.
Note
Sub-10,000 is where confluence has been added now that the rising wedge is valid. 
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