stages of bear market
So are we in stage 2, or stage 3?
Stage 1: drop from ATH, late 2021 through the FTX collapse 2022. New low reached, 15k. (which had other ramifications, including the market losing the asinine amount of fuqery FTX was doing). Stage 2: Market rebounds. See January 2023: the reversion bounce. Stage 3: Capitulation and final drop- bulls are going nuts, buying starts to wane, market heads lower, complacency, bulls throw in the towel, new lows are made, but the bottom is only visible in rear view mirror.... likely a V shaped bottom, where there is a fast and sharp drop followed by a recursion upward ending stage 3. I think the theory that we've yet to enter stage three hinges on the idea that the market drop in March did not constitute a far enough drop, however, Stage two is typically signalled by a fairly good rise (like we saw in january) which is supposed to end with a good drop (like that in March).
It seems to me we've already met all conditions for all three stages, although the march drop may not have been enough. The rapid upside also in march looks a lot like a V shaped recovery.......... We could be headed for a pretty massive bull run here. I'm fenced.
If we are really only now coming to the end of stage 2, there will be a very fast, very painful drop to new lows, possibly below 10k. If stage 2 is over, we're headed to higher ground. How high hard to say- soooo much manipulation makes any TA kinda worthless.
Stage 1: drop from ATH, late 2021 through the FTX collapse 2022. New low reached, 15k. (which had other ramifications, including the market losing the asinine amount of fuqery FTX was doing). Stage 2: Market rebounds. See January 2023: the reversion bounce. Stage 3: Capitulation and final drop- bulls are going nuts, buying starts to wane, market heads lower, complacency, bulls throw in the towel, new lows are made, but the bottom is only visible in rear view mirror.... likely a V shaped bottom, where there is a fast and sharp drop followed by a recursion upward ending stage 3. I think the theory that we've yet to enter stage three hinges on the idea that the market drop in March did not constitute a far enough drop, however, Stage two is typically signalled by a fairly good rise (like we saw in january) which is supposed to end with a good drop (like that in March).
It seems to me we've already met all conditions for all three stages, although the march drop may not have been enough. The rapid upside also in march looks a lot like a V shaped recovery.......... We could be headed for a pretty massive bull run here. I'm fenced.
If we are really only now coming to the end of stage 2, there will be a very fast, very painful drop to new lows, possibly below 10k. If stage 2 is over, we're headed to higher ground. How high hard to say- soooo much manipulation makes any TA kinda worthless.
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