BTCUSD - Longer Term
Mis à jour
I don't believe we will be going for new ATH this year, or at least the first half of the year. We might reach 11k, gain some FOMO and liquidate longs all the way to 3500 (at least). Wouldn't be surprised to see 2400 or even 1200.
I think we'll reach max pain by June or maybe July at the latest for MAJORITY of the markets.
I've had a theory that markets will crash before serious money start flowing into crypto (which will allow for a bull run to the new ATH). My question right now is whether this is "the crash" I've been thinking about. IF it is, then crypto will be the first to bounce up, and we won't see another low (3500 - 1200). However, given the circumstances, I don't believe in this scenario in 2020. It's much more likely that this will still take place but around the next halving time which should happen around 2024.
So far here's my game plan:
For shorts I have 3 plays: we need to either reject here (9400-9600) and then we can short once we've passed 9150; I will also have an order set to sell at 10.4 and 10.2 with super tight SL; or we wait for 11k and short form there.
For longs I have 2 plays: if we break 9600-9800 it's a long to 10.2 - 10.4 just buy dips! ; if we break 10.4 it's a long to 11k.
I will update as the price advances.
I think we'll reach max pain by June or maybe July at the latest for MAJORITY of the markets.
I've had a theory that markets will crash before serious money start flowing into crypto (which will allow for a bull run to the new ATH). My question right now is whether this is "the crash" I've been thinking about. IF it is, then crypto will be the first to bounce up, and we won't see another low (3500 - 1200). However, given the circumstances, I don't believe in this scenario in 2020. It's much more likely that this will still take place but around the next halving time which should happen around 2024.
So far here's my game plan:
For shorts I have 3 plays: we need to either reject here (9400-9600) and then we can short once we've passed 9150; I will also have an order set to sell at 10.4 and 10.2 with super tight SL; or we wait for 11k and short form there.
For longs I have 2 plays: if we break 9600-9800 it's a long to 10.2 - 10.4 just buy dips! ; if we break 10.4 it's a long to 11k.
I will update as the price advances.
Commentaire
Okay so we didn't respect the double top, now I'm sure the only scenario we have is to reach long term resistance at 11k. I doubt we'll break the resistance but halving fomo might surprise us. I keep checking indicators and there's no USD flowing into BTC, most of transactions are cold wallet -> exchange. There's something to think about. Another thing too, this time halving overlaps with the rain season is Asia and electricity price is as cheap as 00.01/KW PLUS the new Antminer S19 PRO is coming out. If we put all this things together, my initial targets of 3500 and 2400 would still allow for profitable mining.
Commentaire
WOW!! What a battle! Bulls were so desperate for 10k and bears wouldn't give it to them! Truly amazing show to watch haha. 10k was really hectic. It seems like longs are exhausted and it looks overbought. Let's watch it for now. I hope they have some gas left to kiss the long term resistance from now until the halving day. After that we'll onboard on a fast train to Raccoon Town!
Invalidation of death will only happen if we reach ATH.
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