cross-border capital flows support BTC
Mis à jour
Morning folks,
Our last setup has failed as BTC has not shown any typical response to resistance area that we've discussed previously. At the same time, the fact that BTC is rising together with the US interest rates (which breaks the reasonable relation between these two assets) have made us to drill this question deeper. And we have come to conclusion that current upside performance is based not at sentiment changes or fundamental background but have pure fiscal reasons. As EU is coming closer to accept the US offer and put embargo on Russian hydrocarbons supply, investors start searching ways to protect the capital and reduce risk. This leads to acceleration of cross-border capital flows out from EU.
In fact, once sanctions were imposed, we've seen fast jump on BTC due Russian oligarchs money inflow. Currently we have longer lasting process and capital flow could last longer, providing support to the BTC market, with some acceleration in May and June when EU economy gets the first fruits of its financial policy.
This makes us to take in consideration the scenario with possible higher targets, although doesn't change our fundamental opinion that BTC is less attractive compares to bonds and dividend stocks right now. Fundamentals once again should come on the first stage, once EU capital flows start to dry out.
Meantime, we consider two not mutually exclusives scenarios in short term. Right now on daily chart price hits 3/8 major Fib resistance, completing upside AB-CD pattern right around resistance line. This makes us could on tactical bounce at least, to 42.5-43K area first. Depending on how BTC response on intraday support, next target might be 55.1-55.3K which is 1.618 extension (XOP) of the same AB-CD pattern and Agreement with the next 5/8 resistance area.
BTC failure to hold intraday support levels makes action to 26K target possible again.
That's being said - bears could start searching reversal patterns on 1H chart to take scalp short positions, while bulls should wait when BTC hits intraday support areas. We return to this subject on Thursday, as usual.
Our last setup has failed as BTC has not shown any typical response to resistance area that we've discussed previously. At the same time, the fact that BTC is rising together with the US interest rates (which breaks the reasonable relation between these two assets) have made us to drill this question deeper. And we have come to conclusion that current upside performance is based not at sentiment changes or fundamental background but have pure fiscal reasons. As EU is coming closer to accept the US offer and put embargo on Russian hydrocarbons supply, investors start searching ways to protect the capital and reduce risk. This leads to acceleration of cross-border capital flows out from EU.
In fact, once sanctions were imposed, we've seen fast jump on BTC due Russian oligarchs money inflow. Currently we have longer lasting process and capital flow could last longer, providing support to the BTC market, with some acceleration in May and June when EU economy gets the first fruits of its financial policy.
This makes us to take in consideration the scenario with possible higher targets, although doesn't change our fundamental opinion that BTC is less attractive compares to bonds and dividend stocks right now. Fundamentals once again should come on the first stage, once EU capital flows start to dry out.
Meantime, we consider two not mutually exclusives scenarios in short term. Right now on daily chart price hits 3/8 major Fib resistance, completing upside AB-CD pattern right around resistance line. This makes us could on tactical bounce at least, to 42.5-43K area first. Depending on how BTC response on intraday support, next target might be 55.1-55.3K which is 1.618 extension (XOP) of the same AB-CD pattern and Agreement with the next 5/8 resistance area.
BTC failure to hold intraday support levels makes action to 26K target possible again.
That's being said - bears could start searching reversal patterns on 1H chart to take scalp short positions, while bulls should wait when BTC hits intraday support areas. We return to this subject on Thursday, as usual.
Commentaire
Morning guys, Today we provide no update for BTC - as you can see, market just goes nowhere. Nothing to talk about by far.
See you on Monday.
ForexPeaceArmy BTC analytics :
forexpeacearmy.com/r/author/11/sive-morten-blog
FX, GOLD:
forexpeacearmy.com/community/forums/sive-morten-currencies-and-gold-video-analysis.122/
forexpeacearmy.com/r/author/11/sive-morten-blog
FX, GOLD:
forexpeacearmy.com/community/forums/sive-morten-currencies-and-gold-video-analysis.122/
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