BTC - bullish monthly fractal patterns

3 févr. 2019

Some interesting symmetries exist in BTC bull/bear cycles that I don't believe have appeared as cleanly before in other assets. My belief which will take several years to play out is these cycles are fundamental to Bitcoin alone due to the nature of it's 4 year supply shock related to the halving. It appears to forecast that 6-12 months prior to the 4 year block reward halving market supply dries up as accumulation begins. The early accumulators buy up the excess supply from a deep bear market which evens the supply curve of new coins. This accumulation forms the flattening period to setup the next bull run. Halving occurs creating supply shock during a bull market while demand is steadily rising. Rapidly rising demand drives FOMO buyers to market creating a parabolic price move. This final parabolic push creates a 700% price move in it's final stage. The duration of the parabolic move takes longer each cycle as total market mass is larger each cycle. The actualization of astronomical raises in price leads to tipping point of profit taking as the older holders sell holding which pushes coins back into supply. This cascades into a tipping point creating the massive descending triangles as supply increases in large moves down are made and the market reconsolidates at a price point to absorb the new supply. Given bear markets are not attritive to new investors the market continues to consolidate and move down as short/medium term players abandon positions until there is no one left to sell.

IF bitcoin markets rhyme based on the underlying supply halving cycles this would explain why Bitcoin moves uniquely compared to other assets that have come before it and in such rhythmic pattern. It will take years to validate this idea but if our premise holds. The cycles between bull markets is approximately 639 days which may shorten in the future as investors seek to get ahead of each other to accumulate.

Despite the deep correction the bear market has made and while the market may still head lower as traders/speculators abandon positions I'm still as bullish as I ever was. I don't know where the market will bottom, the triangle indicates July/August of this year, but for those with a longer term outlook I would be much rather be a buyer in Feb-Aug of 2019 than in Feb-Aug of 2020.