BitcoinShort
BTC - BULL BEAR Make up your Mind Already!
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This will be quick to address the numerous posts I get on, how can you be overall bullish yet short on the market? How can you say your long BTC' but your shorting it at the same time? Well it depends in what frame your trading and the length of the "trade". Using HMA's and RSI you can get a better feel for trends in different time frames. I state over and over until you understand trends, BB EW FIBB Ich-Cloud, all those other indicators are useless! Trend lines and overall trends are the most important aspect of trading.
For this example I used 3 HMA's at different lengths 12,36,64. When the market is bullish you want the equity on the left, green, blue and red (see the lower left chart) and the divergence will tell you the strength the more spread out they are the stronger the bullish sentiment. note in full blow runs above in the weekly how separated the indicators are. This is when you are all in! I don't need anything else! just nice simple trend lines. For bear markets it's the same thing, only sloping down in the lower right you can see the movement yesterday. pretty strong move to the downside.
But as you can see depending on the time frame we are looking at, the trends may be different.
Long term: weekly upper left chart. - Pretty much a market pause 2 neutral 1 bear 1 bull. RSI in still in bullish.
This is why I say if your long term you can buy here and hold. Maybe you buy 1/3 and see if the correction happens and try and cost average your holdings. That's up to you. But the market is still bullish.
Mid term daily: Lower left chart. - Pretty much market is neutral 2 flat, 1 bull, 1 slightly bull, with a bearish RSI. Back it up one day and Bear bear bear. This is why from day to day we are saying looking bullish today bulls have an upper hand, or the bears have emerged from the forest. We are not switching our outlook just looking at the current market sentiment. Look to the left you can see we went from bullish to neutral to bearish back to neutral in 5 days. This is called market swings, and this is what I trade.
Short Term: Upper fight lower right: You can see the swings. 1hr market is neutral but tilting bullish 2 flat/neutral 2 bull with an RSI trying to break out. The 15min is more bullish right now. above the bear bull line on the RSI, but not a steep slope, but all 4 trend lines are positive and diverging.
This is the reason I say have a core position that I do not sell. I dont' want to miss the big bull runs like in the upper left. I want my money in full tilt. 70% of your portfolio should be buy and hold. I look at a chart 30feet away and it's mind boggling. It's going up I'm in! I don't even need my glasses or anything else to see this.
In the short term you can see we go from bull to bear to bull to bear. These are what swing or scalp traders are trading. We don't care about the 6 month trend for which many do, we are looking to make a few bones on the short term swings. So when you hear me say "short" it means I've reduced my position with the attempt to buy a little lower. Vice versa for long. I'm adding to sell a little higher. I'm not looking for $500 movements, i'm looking for $50-$75 quick hits, that over a long term add up. Bottom line I'm never out of a long market, I'm just trading the swings you can see are very clear and LOOK easy to trade.
Remember each HMA and RSI must be adjusted for the specific coin and time frame, though they look good in the example, though they may work, you have to tweak them and backtest. Also do not attempt to go ohh I got it, I'll start trading the swings. whooaaa. Not that easy it's better to trade from consolidation then up and down markets. I wait for calmness then trade out of the consolidation box as the moves are more probable to continue in the direction they started and less likely to turn on a dime. Trying to time swings is highly dangerous to your pocket book.
Thanks again for reading,
For this example I used 3 HMA's at different lengths 12,36,64. When the market is bullish you want the equity on the left, green, blue and red (see the lower left chart) and the divergence will tell you the strength the more spread out they are the stronger the bullish sentiment. note in full blow runs above in the weekly how separated the indicators are. This is when you are all in! I don't need anything else! just nice simple trend lines. For bear markets it's the same thing, only sloping down in the lower right you can see the movement yesterday. pretty strong move to the downside.
But as you can see depending on the time frame we are looking at, the trends may be different.
Long term: weekly upper left chart. - Pretty much a market pause 2 neutral 1 bear 1 bull. RSI in still in bullish.
This is why I say if your long term you can buy here and hold. Maybe you buy 1/3 and see if the correction happens and try and cost average your holdings. That's up to you. But the market is still bullish.
Mid term daily: Lower left chart. - Pretty much market is neutral 2 flat, 1 bull, 1 slightly bull, with a bearish RSI. Back it up one day and Bear bear bear. This is why from day to day we are saying looking bullish today bulls have an upper hand, or the bears have emerged from the forest. We are not switching our outlook just looking at the current market sentiment. Look to the left you can see we went from bullish to neutral to bearish back to neutral in 5 days. This is called market swings, and this is what I trade.
Short Term: Upper fight lower right: You can see the swings. 1hr market is neutral but tilting bullish 2 flat/neutral 2 bull with an RSI trying to break out. The 15min is more bullish right now. above the bear bull line on the RSI, but not a steep slope, but all 4 trend lines are positive and diverging.
This is the reason I say have a core position that I do not sell. I dont' want to miss the big bull runs like in the upper left. I want my money in full tilt. 70% of your portfolio should be buy and hold. I look at a chart 30feet away and it's mind boggling. It's going up I'm in! I don't even need my glasses or anything else to see this.
In the short term you can see we go from bull to bear to bull to bear. These are what swing or scalp traders are trading. We don't care about the 6 month trend for which many do, we are looking to make a few bones on the short term swings. So when you hear me say "short" it means I've reduced my position with the attempt to buy a little lower. Vice versa for long. I'm adding to sell a little higher. I'm not looking for $500 movements, i'm looking for $50-$75 quick hits, that over a long term add up. Bottom line I'm never out of a long market, I'm just trading the swings you can see are very clear and LOOK easy to trade.
Remember each HMA and RSI must be adjusted for the specific coin and time frame, though they look good in the example, though they may work, you have to tweak them and backtest. Also do not attempt to go ohh I got it, I'll start trading the swings. whooaaa. Not that easy it's better to trade from consolidation then up and down markets. I wait for calmness then trade out of the consolidation box as the moves are more probable to continue in the direction they started and less likely to turn on a dime. Trying to time swings is highly dangerous to your pocket book.
Thanks again for reading,
Note
Sean_Venegan brought up a good point which I should have mentioned. "Only the more accomplished and experienced traders can mix and match the timeframes and have what would appear to others different "conflicting" trades, as this can leave you very very confused and lose you money"This is critical to understand. If your trading long term your looking at long term trends adding on major dips. If you are Swing trading or scalping your only focused on very short time intervals and entry exit points are very short term. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN YOUR TRADING VS THE OVERALL LONG TERM TREND! If you are shorting or reducing position in BTC you do not hold for days, your in, your out. Trading against the overall Bullish long term trend in a stock can leave you broke.
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