BTCUSD: Not That Weak? Quiet Market Offers Clues.

13 mars 2018

BTCUSD update: 9616 level was compromised but bullish momentum did not take hold. As long as this market can stay above the 8342 low, it will still have a chance to break higher.

In my previous BTC report, I highlighted the 9616 break out level which is the .382 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish swing. Price pushed it, and failed. Is this a bearish sign? The fact that price pushed through, even though not followed by bullish momentum is still a sign of strength. A break of this level does not guarantee follow through, it acts as more of a heads up. As long as price does not fall below the recent swing low of 8342, it is setting up for a bullish move in my opinion.

Remember if this market was really weak, it would be making bearish progress quickly. This can still happen, especially if a more significant catalyst comes out and pulls the rug from under this price action. The fact that it is holding above the 8659 level indecisively is a sign of strength especially in the face of Goldman Sachs' attempt to talk it lower.

IF the current candle closes in its present configuration (inside bar) then what happens next will provide a much better clue as to where this market is going. A break above 9482 will establish a higher low, which can lead to a retest of the 10422 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). IF bearish momentum increases, and price closes below 8342, then I would expect a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support.

Aren't lower highs like the one at 9900 a sign of weakness? Yes, often lower highs are followed by lower lows, but when in range bound environments such as this, the chances of a fake out are much more likely compared to a decisive move lower. This is especially the case when price is sitting above a number of overlapping support levels.

In summary, as I have mentioned before, when conditions are unclear, let the market show its hand. When questioning the market, valuable information is gathered not only from what the market is doing, but also from what it is NOT doing. Even though this market may look weak to the casual observer, it is not pushing lows which to me is a hidden sign of strength. Don't be mislead by uneventful conditions because more often than not, that is where opportunity exists.

Questions and comments welcome.