BTC Long term 4 year cycle trend in trouble

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Bitcoin is ready for a longer term Bear market. After a being in an uptrend or it entire existence on a macro look. On the other side, Bitcoin is looking like it did right before the Nov 2018 before the dump to my green moving average @ 3150ish filling about 50% of the measured move. The current measured move has a target around 15K.
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probably more pain in the macro.... it's looked good a few times at this point.... is BTC really ready for a reversal?
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