40.5-41K level is vital now

14 févr. 2022 Morning folks,

So, BTC accurately has completed our last 45.6K target and dropped out from the strong weekly resistance area. To be honest, guys, we can't find a solid long-term background for investing in crypto now. The two big factors of tough Fed policy and rising geopolitical tensions keep us aside from taking long-term bullish positions. We expect that Fed hike the rate by 0.5% in March and we suggest that it might be not a single case throughout the year. It is not fully priced in already and supposedly will be bearish for BTC.

The second is geopolitics. We suggest that tensions are not even started yet, all that we see is just a child's play to what is on the way. Since the BTC shows mostly quality of risky asset - it goes down among the first, if tensions start rising again.

Still, if geopolitical talks ease a bit for a few days, BTC has a short-term background that might work. For example, on the 4H chart, we have a kind of H&S pattern with vital 40.5-41K support. The previous move-up shows signs of thrust, and the technical setup looks not too bad. If we wouldn't have all this political stuff, we would say that it is suitable for a long entry. But, now you never know when a new spiral of geopolitical tricks comes on the stage.

If for whatever reason, BTC starts dropping below the major 5/8 area - we're going to 26K daily target.