Last week I published an idea titled, "Crazy BTC Mystical Convergences", in which I pointed out that BTC was repeating the same exact pattern set it did in the last Bull-Bear market cycle - a descending triangle capitulating into an Adam & Eve recovery - only a smaller scale: ie, a "fractal". We've had our descending triangle and capitulation, and our Adam, and now we are onto the "Eve" part, forming a falling wedge that should take us back down to our lowest point of the Adam, at around 7690 - or close to it.
It's worth noting that we are still on track.
However, today's dump put us dangerously close to invalidating the falling wedge. Of course, and Adam & Eve patterns can happen in different ways; the "Eve" doesn't have to be a falling wedge. It could also be a U-shape. But if we go much lower than where we are now and certainly if we close a daily candle under 7900 we would be invalidating the falling wedge.
Also noteworthy is that nearly all of the key higher-time-frame oscillators (ie, stochastic and RSI on 2-day, 3-day & 4-day charts, but NOT weekly or monthly charts, yet) - are in the exact same spot they were at the end of the "Eve" part in late January of this year. The daily stochs, however, still need to come down a bit, but the daily RSI is in the same spot. The weekly and monthly stochs and RSI still need to come down more.
ALSO VERY NOTEWORTHY: The current crypto fear & greed index reading of 40 is exactly where we were at at around this point of the "Eve" falling wedge back in January (ie, roughly halfway through). We then went sideways for a while, during which time it dropped all the way into the teens, the point from which our Eve sprung up into the new bull market.
So - my conclusion: we're still following this fractal, but we definitely need both the daily stochs and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index number to come down quite a bit more before we have a chance of breaking back up. Fear and loathing need to be HIGH. And certainly - we need people NOT believing in this fractal pattern (irony acknowledged) and cyrpto YouTubers and major CT people calling for 6K and 5K and a new bear market. Otherwise it won't happen. Remember - the number one rule in crypto is that 95% of retail traders will continually get REKT, so you always have to side with the movement that will REK the most retail traders.
It's worth noting that we are still on track.
However, today's dump put us dangerously close to invalidating the falling wedge. Of course, and Adam & Eve patterns can happen in different ways; the "Eve" doesn't have to be a falling wedge. It could also be a U-shape. But if we go much lower than where we are now and certainly if we close a daily candle under 7900 we would be invalidating the falling wedge.
Also noteworthy is that nearly all of the key higher-time-frame oscillators (ie, stochastic and RSI on 2-day, 3-day & 4-day charts, but NOT weekly or monthly charts, yet) - are in the exact same spot they were at the end of the "Eve" part in late January of this year. The daily stochs, however, still need to come down a bit, but the daily RSI is in the same spot. The weekly and monthly stochs and RSI still need to come down more.
ALSO VERY NOTEWORTHY: The current crypto fear & greed index reading of 40 is exactly where we were at at around this point of the "Eve" falling wedge back in January (ie, roughly halfway through). We then went sideways for a while, during which time it dropped all the way into the teens, the point from which our Eve sprung up into the new bull market.
So - my conclusion: we're still following this fractal, but we definitely need both the daily stochs and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index number to come down quite a bit more before we have a chance of breaking back up. Fear and loathing need to be HIGH. And certainly - we need people NOT believing in this fractal pattern (irony acknowledged) and cyrpto YouTubers and major CT people calling for 6K and 5K and a new bear market. Otherwise it won't happen. Remember - the number one rule in crypto is that 95% of retail traders will continually get REKT, so you always have to side with the movement that will REK the most retail traders.
