Keep calm and buidl!
These random bitcoin price movements are annoying as fuck. I'm outraging. Like 10% fluctuations per day in a completely illogical manner.
but looking at the long/short on Bitfinex, we have a new low in 2018 and we are very close to the levels of September and November 2017. Both ended with a short squeeze. The difference is that today are more shorts and more longs in the market at the same overall ratio. Everyone is on leverage!
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/g2CLfhHq/
In another thread on Tradingview I just read that some whale buys thousands of BTC on Bitfinex, probably to trigger exactly that: a short squeeze. And we are still good for the start a Elliot wave 3 because we have not violated the low (beginning) of the potential wave 1. Usually wave 3 starts with exactly that: a short squeeze.
Also we have the news about Bitmain which are stuck with millions of BCH that they cannot sell on the market and therefore have no liquid capital so that they need their ICO to get a exit of last resort after loosing their BCH gamble. Bitmain therefore is in need for a bull run towards the end of the third quarter to finish their ICO successfully. Bitmain might have the means to trigger a short squeeze in critical moments like these.
With critical moments i mean moments where you can paint the tape to draw buy signals for a whole class of traders by indicating a trend change. Remember that all indicators and rules are just derivations of price! A reversal now and a subsequent higher high above 8300 USD would trigger the elliot wave artists and might lead to a break of 10k USD which invalidates the plans of the harmonic pattern traders and suddenly the sky is the limit.
Other players in need for a bull run are the funds that control the ICO market and still need to cash out their gains from 2016/2017. Add chains like EOS which have high costs of maintaining their infrastructure to bootstrap the ecosystem. All of the above collaborate on a regular basis as they know each other from conferences and private meetings.
I'm extremely neutral right now. As successful manipulation at these critical moments is extremely valuable, it depends largely on what the invisible hands would make money from. Everyone is waiting for a drop to 4300 USD to get that beautiful V-Shape. Maybe this would be in the interest of everyone to finally pull in the traders from the sidelines. But thats usually not how a bull run is made.
It's more often than not born from uncertainty that is slowly cooked as more and more traders get pulled in from the sidelines that waited to long for the big drop and start to catch the price which slowly fuels the growing bubble until mania kicks in and the plebs get raped. Just look back to summer 2017 when everyone waited for a drop to 1300-1800 USD.
but looking at the long/short on Bitfinex, we have a new low in 2018 and we are very close to the levels of September and November 2017. Both ended with a short squeeze. The difference is that today are more shorts and more longs in the market at the same overall ratio. Everyone is on leverage!
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/g2CLfhHq/
In another thread on Tradingview I just read that some whale buys thousands of BTC on Bitfinex, probably to trigger exactly that: a short squeeze. And we are still good for the start a Elliot wave 3 because we have not violated the low (beginning) of the potential wave 1. Usually wave 3 starts with exactly that: a short squeeze.
Also we have the news about Bitmain which are stuck with millions of BCH that they cannot sell on the market and therefore have no liquid capital so that they need their ICO to get a exit of last resort after loosing their BCH gamble. Bitmain therefore is in need for a bull run towards the end of the third quarter to finish their ICO successfully. Bitmain might have the means to trigger a short squeeze in critical moments like these.
With critical moments i mean moments where you can paint the tape to draw buy signals for a whole class of traders by indicating a trend change. Remember that all indicators and rules are just derivations of price! A reversal now and a subsequent higher high above 8300 USD would trigger the elliot wave artists and might lead to a break of 10k USD which invalidates the plans of the harmonic pattern traders and suddenly the sky is the limit.
Other players in need for a bull run are the funds that control the ICO market and still need to cash out their gains from 2016/2017. Add chains like EOS which have high costs of maintaining their infrastructure to bootstrap the ecosystem. All of the above collaborate on a regular basis as they know each other from conferences and private meetings.
I'm extremely neutral right now. As successful manipulation at these critical moments is extremely valuable, it depends largely on what the invisible hands would make money from. Everyone is waiting for a drop to 4300 USD to get that beautiful V-Shape. Maybe this would be in the interest of everyone to finally pull in the traders from the sidelines. But thats usually not how a bull run is made.
It's more often than not born from uncertainty that is slowly cooked as more and more traders get pulled in from the sidelines that waited to long for the big drop and start to catch the price which slowly fuels the growing bubble until mania kicks in and the plebs get raped. Just look back to summer 2017 when everyone waited for a drop to 1300-1800 USD.
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