Hi all thanks for taking the time to read my analysis.
On the chart I am comparing the end of April 2018 rally to this current rally and pointing out the similarities I am seeing here.
First we see that the overall structure of the recent price action on the right hand side is resembling the April rally very closely. I pasted the bar pattern over current prices to get a better idea of how similar these movements are.
We can see that there was a bullish breakout of the triangle back in April 2018 and the price reached target of the breakout.
For those unfamiliar with this measurement, the target price after a triangle breakout is equal to the measurement of the widest part of the triangle and begins either at the apex of the triangle or the breakout point.
The price happened to fall after it reached the triangle breakout target back in April and the price is currently starting to slow down around the target of this triangle breakout.
The best indicator is volume and I am also seeing many similarities with this, as you can see circled on the chart. After the strong impulse move up, we can see a big spike in selling volume which was the first major sell-off. Then during consolidating in the triangle we see another big spike in selling volume but no breakdown of the triangle. Lastly, we see a big bump in buying volume during the breakout of the triangle. This exact sequence of volume changes can be seen back in April 2018 and the current rally.
The last thing to take note of is the bearish divergence on RSI. While divergences do not always equal a change in trend, if everything else follows through then we can use this as extra confirmation of an impending drop.
In order to consider this fractal valid, I want to first see a drop back down towards 7-7.5k range and then a subsequent breakdown of the 7k level. If this occurs, we can assume we will see prices return to the 6k range.
I do not have exact targets as I would rather wait to see how price and volume reacts to the major support levels below.
Please don’t forget to like this analysis if you found it useful. Thanks!
On the chart I am comparing the end of April 2018 rally to this current rally and pointing out the similarities I am seeing here.
First we see that the overall structure of the recent price action on the right hand side is resembling the April rally very closely. I pasted the bar pattern over current prices to get a better idea of how similar these movements are.
We can see that there was a bullish breakout of the triangle back in April 2018 and the price reached target of the breakout.
For those unfamiliar with this measurement, the target price after a triangle breakout is equal to the measurement of the widest part of the triangle and begins either at the apex of the triangle or the breakout point.
The price happened to fall after it reached the triangle breakout target back in April and the price is currently starting to slow down around the target of this triangle breakout.
The best indicator is volume and I am also seeing many similarities with this, as you can see circled on the chart. After the strong impulse move up, we can see a big spike in selling volume which was the first major sell-off. Then during consolidating in the triangle we see another big spike in selling volume but no breakdown of the triangle. Lastly, we see a big bump in buying volume during the breakout of the triangle. This exact sequence of volume changes can be seen back in April 2018 and the current rally.
The last thing to take note of is the bearish divergence on RSI. While divergences do not always equal a change in trend, if everything else follows through then we can use this as extra confirmation of an impending drop.
In order to consider this fractal valid, I want to first see a drop back down towards 7-7.5k range and then a subsequent breakdown of the 7k level. If this occurs, we can assume we will see prices return to the 6k range.
I do not have exact targets as I would rather wait to see how price and volume reacts to the major support levels below.
Please don’t forget to like this analysis if you found it useful. Thanks!
Commentaire:
Price finally reached the target of the triangle breakout at around 9,100. The fractal shows that is the top, let's see if it follows through.
Commentaire:
The 4 hour candle just closed and there was some serious selling volume on that last candle. I think a big drop is coming over the next few days.
Commentaire:
There it goes :)
Trade fermée manuellement:
Didn't fully replicate the fractal, but it doesn't matter because I still called the top on this one and made some profits on shorting this down and closed at $7,800 and $8,150. This is also the same prices where I decided to go long and posted this idea:
