Is the market preparing for a crash?

Mis à jour

If your in BTC and your afraid of heights, its probably not the best time to be in unless you can afford to loose the money IMO.
I see a large diamond shaping up and next up on deck is a huge drop if this analysis comes to fruition. Be safe. Perhaps you all see something I don't so good luck.

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Here is the idea on the 4 hour...I never get dates right so please don't look at the dates but just the general idea. No one can predict the future. This is only an idea I see. Please do your own analysis and come to your own conclusions. Take care

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Here is a bullish idea, assuming a diamond bottom is in play. Food for thought.

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BTC diamond top can go as high as 30k (I just adjusted the lines)...looks like the DOW for example can go a little higher and BTC will follow, but this weekend I suspect will be bloody, but we shall see.

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everything is slowing way down ...this weekend may not be bloody after all

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Call me crazy but I still see this... I have several paths drawn because its BTC and who knows which path it will take. Am I counting on a black swan event for this? ...maybe. Take care

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I am changing my targets...I think BTC may be super sensitive to the smallest DOW and other index moves ...here is my update. Call me crazy. Its just an idea folks. Take care

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Will the US gov sell some BTC over the weekend? It seems BTC can make some big moves when the US market isn't in session either up or down. This idea obviously points down but its BTC..anything can happen and we will need to adjust accordingly. Good luck

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This idea is running out of time...I'll give it a few more days (Wed at 8:30 should be telling). Take care

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meh this idea seems to have lost its traction, but I'll keep it alive a bit longer...

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It can go higher...let's see.

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BTC seems to be struggling to push up higher...look at the OBV arrows I show below. Aug 21' - beginning of Nov 21'. There doesn't look like there will be a push up to me as today's chart looks similar. I think BTC tops out at around 31k at the peak in the next 1-2 weeks and honestly I still see a sharp fall down within the diamond pattern. This is a weekly chart so this will take time to transpire. This is an idea only so please don't take it as gospel or me trying to claim I know the future. Now I do think there could be a black swan event in here and that may sound a little crazy. Perhaps nuclear weapons related events ...who knows and I'm not claiming to. But if this happens the volume would drop sharply and the recovery time will significantly speed up IMO. Otherwise it may just take a lot of time to recover and there is a chance it won't too right? Anything is possible. Lastly, there is a chance that BTC keeps going up if the OBV spikes up from here. I doubt this scenario, but anything is possible. Take Care

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Just watching and waiting for something to change...

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Let's look at the week again...its a little ironic its at the TD6 again...who knows but its interesting to me...take care

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It looks like its out of gas...will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks. Good luck

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Feel free to laugh at this one...its just a thought. I'm not trying to predict the future. Its just an idea and wanted to share. Take care

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If we go by TD sequential, BTC has been hitting the 9 when heading down recently so that's next Tues-Wed ...let's see. Have a good weekend

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Next 10 days will tell us the direction. IMO big swings up and down, then very bloody. We shall see. Good luck

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How it drops I do not claim to know...here is another idea. Good luck

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BTC going parabolic or a great big dump is coming and distribution is at work...I mentioned many months ago that a lot of big money got in around this price and they want their money back so... we shall see. Good luck

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Let me be clear about this ...big money is taking the general populations money right now and then they will short it hard so folks are stuck. Its the game they play so unless your familiar be careful OK. Take Care

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This needs a couple weeks to transpire...just watching. Take Care

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Nothing new to report ...a little update on the chart as its progressed...big week

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Developing...diamond pattern idea is done IMO...Here is what I am seeing now. Still a big drop coming. OBV and history would say there is one last push up before the big drop. We shall see. Take care

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probably looking at the beginning of June before the descent starts ...this is going to take a while to develop IMO. Good Luck

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descent is starting now IMO...time is up. Timing is so hard to predict for me. Have a good summer and trade the bounces or take a break if swing trading isn't for you and come back later. Take Care

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As you can see above BTC has one last push up at some random point according to the OBV...I don't like guessing so who knows when it will be. Good luck

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Here is another idea...we will see. Take Care

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IMO not much happening until mid June...things are slowing way down. Big money seems to be taking a break, maybe going on vacation, living life. My thought is down until mid June, then up for a month or so, then down to the level where people really question where BTC is going. Then BTC either keeps going down until the end of the year or makes a big move up to 50k by the end of the year which is possible IMO given its history and anticipation of a better 2024 market. This year may be good from the perspective of finding gems and sitting on them for when the good times possibly in the beginning of 2024. Some say good times are over. They may be right. You have to decide on what is worth the risk. Don't depend on anyone else. Take Care!

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Until the debt issues are resolved I smell manipulation coming...should be some good buy setups for swing trades only, not long IMO...good luck

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Updated idea ... take care

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A lot of up and down for a few weeks IMO ....good luck and have a great weekend

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OBV hit my mark on the daily (shown below) so the one last spike up has occurred so its decision time for BTC. Will there be a big drop or will it keep going up? Let's use some common sense here though. With the debt issues still unresolved, markets are going to be manipulated, therefore I'm bearish until a debt package is in place and then Powell gives some good news. Good luck!

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Another idea with some different options. BTC will likely drop at least 13% by next week IMO unless news breaks about a debt deal and shifts momentum. Good luck as usual

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I'm looking for a manipulation drop down to the 23.6k area tonight or perhaps this weekend (depends on when the Senate passes the bill). If it doesn't drop, I'm open to BTC going up for now (watching OBV as usual for confirmation). There will be some good discounts to be had upon a drop IMO. Good Luck!

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Here is an update on a the OBV indicator ...following the path so far and starting to head down as expected. Good luck

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Now that the debt ceiling situation is over, what next? The matter was settled quickly and so the extreme manipulation I thought would trasnpire did not. BTC still looks weak however, and I believe it will drop but when, how fast and far?
What I do know is that there are some ALTS that should make some good money in the future sitting at or near the bottom so I'm watching these.
In the meanwhile I will just be watching the OBV and keep you updated with some ideas. Take Care!

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Here is another idea ...hope you have a great weekend

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zoomed in ...

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idea for the next couple of months....could go down (before going up first) but the same destination IMO (things slowing down) ...good luck

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lol ..down hard now. Of course, its BTC. No correlation with DJI which actually is not good IMO. Not ruling out a big crash now with this signal...take care

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manipulative drop or start of a much bigger drop?

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combo idea ...so three ideas including the one above. Looking for validation on one of them but not in the market currently as more down is in the cards IMO...good luck

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Interesting ...OBV on the daily turned up and is right at the crossing point. Usually BTC makes dramatic move one way or another at this point. Let's see. Not guessing at this point. Looking for more confirmation. Good Luck

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OBV turned down again ...to me that is a very bad sign as I see this as a rejection. So this may be choppy for a while but more down seems to be in the cards IMO...good luck

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If the recent past is an indicator of where we are going, we will arrive at "a" bottom about the end of July. Then a swing trade and then well we shall see. The big investors are on vacation while everyone else sweats it out as usual. They will drop it and then start their trading season again with a bargain near 20k. Sometimes it takes a while to figure these things out but I feel pretty good about this one...nothing will be good to invest in until then IMO...good luck

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Not sure what is going to happen before 2:30pm EST on Wed. when Powell speaks, other than a false breakout I suppose. His words will weigh heavy on the market IMO. Take care

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Same idea ...more detailed. Looks like a lot of volatility ahead till say the end of July to me...good luck

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BTC still bouncing off the OBV on the daily. Following the path for now. It will be interesting to see if BTC heads down 4-5% more before a bounce or if it falls off a cliff. I think. this is all controlled down until the end of July, but we shall see. Good Luck

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Another idea...flat until the end of June gearing up for a downturn as we get closer to rate hikes. Squeezing the lemon. We shall see. Good luck

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Its up in the air at this point what the path will be but more down ultimately IMO...good luck!

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Here is BTC OBV on the 5 day. Its either looking like a controlled drop by end of July (estimate) down to the 20k area with a pop up to 26-27k and then back down to say 23k before resuming up OR this like May of 21' where BTC is going to head right down to the 12k area. Its really hard to know so I think about the current economic state. Election year is next year so the markets will likely start picking up IMO. No more interest rate hikes looming next year (that we know of). We have a couple more this year coming and one in July probably so why not drop it down now? Well that's my logic. We shall see. Take care

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updated idea...good luck

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OBV on the daily is hinting at BTC taking the "green" route or the rising wedge heading to 33k area over the next month or two OR will the OBV fall/crash quickly back under the trend line, thus a BTC crash? Its your call to make. Has BTC been consolidating and is now ready to head up or it this a fake out? I think if BTC can clear 27.3k its likely to head up. Of course count on a pull back at some point to keep you guessing but if you know the trend, you can track the path. Good Luck

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If BTC can't clear 27.3k, I think it will pull back to the 25k area and then we simply look to DJI for example to guide us on the path thereafter. If DJI for example pulls back only to head higher, so will BTC. On the flip side, expect a hard crash if DJI doesn't find support and keeps going down. This is ONLY my opinion but my trading plan. I watch and wait until a decision is made. Good luck.

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BTC has spoken IMO ...up until end of July to 33k area then down until end of Nov? We shall see. Take Care!

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slightly updated idea...same timelines until BTC shows otherwise...good luck

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zoomed in a bit ...we shall see. Good luck

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BTC look like it may wants to slowly climb up to the target ...let's see. Good Luck

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Watch out ...BTC is being tricky. It may come down and get 28.8k quickly..wow

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updated idea ...good luck

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A little push up (max up shown...doesn't mean it gets there) and then a drop to 27k? Let's see. Take care

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IMO BTC is either going to jump up to its target as shown above or do something like this ...either way its looking like the end of Aug may start a new downtrend to me. Markets change and I'll adjust but this is what I'm seeing now. Take care

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meh prob like this ..changed my mind. Good luck

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Just speculating based on DJI for example. Perhaps that's bad logic (in other words feel free to disagree) but its what I am thinking. BTC needs to be a bit more tricky IMO so a drop down when DJI drops and then a bit higher than I have shown so near 34k. We will see how this all plays out so for now I am waiting for the 3 main US indices to give direction because it will regardless of what others say about how BTC is no longer tied to them. This will drag out for at least the next month so. Waiting for decent support to be hit for a swing trade...I'll wait to post more as I am just guessing at this point which is no good. Take care

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This week will likely be bloody IMO. I have updated my chart to show that in the distant future 20k area may hold. Its possible. Much has to happen before then of course. Take Care

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Is BTC being tricky or does it have a huge jump start on the US index drop and how far down will it go is the question. Could BTC do something like this? Take Care

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Here is a tricky thought where BTC forms a head and shoulder and then fakes out everyone and heads up quickly from the 20k area. Considered how manipulated price movement is, I think this makes a lot of sense actually. Take Care

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same idea as the ones above but with different timelines..going to stop posting until this all plays out so we shall see. Take Care

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updated path idea ...good luck

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updated path idea ...good luck

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A guess at timing (which of course is impossible to estimate) so just food for thought on how this could play out. Good luck.

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Look like a rise before the fall is in the cards IMO...good luck

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Looks like the previous idea was the more accurate path. There will be blood IMO. Aug and Sept are terrible trading months typically...let's see where the dust settles in Oct. Sure there will be a bounce for the next week or so but it won't last for long IMO. Take Care...I won't be posting till Oct likely.

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Following the route...let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Take Care!

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same idea ...different timing. Good luck!

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long term prediction ...good luck

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forgot to show that in 2025 we may see a decline instead of an increase. Good luck

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11% drop incoming? Let's see

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updated idea...looks like BTC wants to get to around the 32k area by next week and then IMO a big drop back to the 25k area may be in the cards. This seems inevitable to me but we shall see. The question will then be can BTC hold the 25k area before resuming up? I think we will know my mid Dec. if that's true. Good luck!

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LOL... See you at the bottom. Take Care

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Will be my last idea here for a while. Good luck and Happy Holidays.

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elliott77

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