BTC vs The bad Boy of Fractals

4 août 2018

Hi there,

welcome to another educational post dealing with fractals. Again i will derive a possible path from a pattern which is not yet completed. So beware that there are many IFs,WOULDs and LIKEHOODs on the way to completion. The market will decide when to go where. IF the pattern gets invalidated we all will be happy in the sight of one thing less to worry about.

But in case of the pattern WOULD be completed, i have derived some trend lines from parts of the whole structure. I have colored them accordingly, so you can replicate it later on your own and in any chart you spot suitable fractals on. Looking especially at the downside there is no guarantee IF or WHEN certain levels will be reached. Those levels and trends i derived are there because their existence is defined by kinda geometric rules. I derived and cloned some more as needed to verify them against each other and reveal the IMPLICATED error rate of the painting. The target levels are indicators for the potential of the pattern. Nothing more, nothing less. As this trend lines imply an error rate, as stated before, please see all derived data as estimates. You probably can derive more trend lines from this pattern but this set fits the educational purpose.

I have put some effort in making the chart and process of creation as self-explaining as possible. I will try to answer unanswered questions about deriving and building but i might not answer questions beyond, especially questions like "WHEN will price of X be Y?". I have no crystal ball and i'm surely not the Neil Armstrong of this H&S pattern but all output is solely made by me, backed up with six month of learning TA.

Thanks in advance for your kindness, respect and support.
Sincerely

Disclaimer: This is an educational post and not a trade advisory at all. Please do your own research before you draw your own conclusions.

4 août 2018

Note

I left out the historic data before the pattern on purpose because i wan't to show you in the zoomed out chart how to validate/confirm the derived trend lines against historic data. Just extend the trend lines to the left and look for price actions around those trend lines. I have marked them with a bubble. Please also look into lower timeframes if you don't see reactions on the timeframe of your choice. If you see the trend lines acting as support/resistance on historic data your drawing seems to work out.

This is no guarantee an incomplete pattern will complete. It just says that if the pattern completes, the trend lines are more or less correct when they acted as described or not.