XBTFX

Bitcoin: is $25K sustainable?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Volatility was back on the market during the previous week, but only for a short term. Investors' optimism was significantly increased by the news that Grayscale, a large digital asset management fund, won the lawsuit against SEC. Grayscale sued SEC after the regulator refused to provide green light for the fund manager to convert its Bitcoin Trust into an Exchange Traded Fund. Markets perceived such a decision as a signal over potential SEC`s first approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US. BTC gained almost 7% on this news. However, the optimism did not last for a longer period of time, as SEC announced that it will postpone their response on pending filings from several financial institutions and digital asset management companies, on their filings for spot BTC ETF. The response is for now postponed till October this year, however, the SEC officially has 240 days to respond from the day of the filing submission. What will be the final resolution of current filings from BlackRock, WisdomTree, VanEck and others is about to be seen within next month.

News regarding SEC`s postponing of the final response on filings for the first spot BTC ETF hit the markets for one more time, so BTC, and many other coins, erased all previous gains during the week. BTC started the previous week around level of $25.8K, reached the highest week level at $28.1K, and returned to the level from the beginning of the week, ending the week around $25.8K. Market continues to be on hold. During the week RSI tried to move away from the oversold side, however, soon returned to the downside, ending the week at level of 35. This is an indication that the recovery toward the overbought side might take some time. There are some negative developments with moving averages, where MA50 continues to move very close toward its counterpart MA200. As per current charts there is increased probability for a so-called dead cross to occur in the coming period. This is certainly not a good sign for BTC.

BTC is still managing to hold the 25K support line. This is positive for BTC. However, during the previous week we have seen clearly current market sentiment. In order for BTC to move to the higher grounds, a spot BTC ETF is a crucial point. This would mean BTC`s further inclusion into the mainstream which would certainly increase a demand for this coin. However, in case of a negative outcome of SEC`s decision, it would be perceived as a setback for BTC, and the market would certainly react negatively to such a news. In this sense, at least until October, it should not be expected to see some significant BTC moves. On a positive side is that the coin manages to sustain the 25K support line, which could also be expected in the week ahead. On the opposite side, some movements toward $26K are possible, but higher volatility should not be expected. The BTC market is now in digesting mode.

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