Bitcoin Analysis: Bearish or Bullish ? Same pattern repeats !
This is a Thread where I explain where the price is gonna take his direction, up or down? Based fundamentally on T.A at the weekly timeframe, Emotional Behaviour, and some fundamentals.
1- As I show in the chart (weekly time frame), The same scenario is repeating itself, with the same trendline structures!
In the may crash: The trend of the bearish structure was directed by a Channel formed from two Main Trendlines:
Trendline 1: Formed from the previous higher high (57k) before top 1 (64k) and the 2nd next low (48k) after the top (64k)
Trendline 2: Formed from the lowest low (42k) before top 1 (64k) and the next lower low (35k)
2-Nowadays crash (November): the trend of the bearish structure is limited by a channel with two main trendlines formed by the same patterns of the trendlines in the May crash:
Trendline 1': From the previous higher high (64k) before top 2 (69k) and the 2nd next low (46k) after the top (69k)
Trendline 2': Formed from the lowest low (40k) before top 2 (69k) and the next lower low (34k)
3-To be clear even if I say the first top is 64k keep in my mind that in my analysis it's not a precise local point of the price, it's a zone (60-62k), the same thing for the top 2 69k.
4-In addition to that Volume is decreasing.
5-Combining that technical Analysis with the emotional behavior, I can tell that nowadays (at the time of writing this thread: week 1 of February) we are exactly in the third week of Jun, at the 14-20 Jun weekly candle where the fear and greed index was at 38 (now we are at 37) and we had in the next week another dump after that relief rally.
6- To summarize it up, combining both patterns of P.A using the T.A and Fear and Greed Index we may see the next scenario happen again: Another dump starting from the next week (7-13 February 2022)to the 30k-32k level but we can see probably a continued bullish momentum (from now: Sunday evening to Monday or Tuesday) to the 43-44k LVL testing respectively the daily 50 MA and the weekly EMA 50 before any downside movement.
7 -Last, watching some fundamentals, these are some strong narratives to keep in mind that are in the correlation of the said analysis above, and that may drive the market down again.
- Fed raising interest rates in March is affecting all the traditional financial markets and we know that they are still linked to Crypto Market.
- The escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine
- The Sec delayed the ETF Grayscale spot Bitcoin (not good) BUT asked for Public comment (which may be a good sign later)
- Social engagement in the crypto sphere is still decreasing (loss of interest from retails).
1- As I show in the chart (weekly time frame), The same scenario is repeating itself, with the same trendline structures!
In the may crash: The trend of the bearish structure was directed by a Channel formed from two Main Trendlines:
Trendline 1: Formed from the previous higher high (57k) before top 1 (64k) and the 2nd next low (48k) after the top (64k)
Trendline 2: Formed from the lowest low (42k) before top 1 (64k) and the next lower low (35k)
2-Nowadays crash (November): the trend of the bearish structure is limited by a channel with two main trendlines formed by the same patterns of the trendlines in the May crash:
Trendline 1': From the previous higher high (64k) before top 2 (69k) and the 2nd next low (46k) after the top (69k)
Trendline 2': Formed from the lowest low (40k) before top 2 (69k) and the next lower low (34k)
3-To be clear even if I say the first top is 64k keep in my mind that in my analysis it's not a precise local point of the price, it's a zone (60-62k), the same thing for the top 2 69k.
4-In addition to that Volume is decreasing.
5-Combining that technical Analysis with the emotional behavior, I can tell that nowadays (at the time of writing this thread: week 1 of February) we are exactly in the third week of Jun, at the 14-20 Jun weekly candle where the fear and greed index was at 38 (now we are at 37) and we had in the next week another dump after that relief rally.
6- To summarize it up, combining both patterns of P.A using the T.A and Fear and Greed Index we may see the next scenario happen again: Another dump starting from the next week (7-13 February 2022)to the 30k-32k level but we can see probably a continued bullish momentum (from now: Sunday evening to Monday or Tuesday) to the 43-44k LVL testing respectively the daily 50 MA and the weekly EMA 50 before any downside movement.
7 -Last, watching some fundamentals, these are some strong narratives to keep in mind that are in the correlation of the said analysis above, and that may drive the market down again.
- Fed raising interest rates in March is affecting all the traditional financial markets and we know that they are still linked to Crypto Market.
- The escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine
- The Sec delayed the ETF Grayscale spot Bitcoin (not good) BUT asked for Public comment (which may be a good sign later)
- Social engagement in the crypto sphere is still decreasing (loss of interest from retails).
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.