Bitcoin LTF Signals Wyckoff Phase D Potential Near Term Weakness

Seems volatility is the name of the game as power changes hands in Washington, D.C., and Memecoins are set to swallow up market liquidity (for better or worse). Personally, I’ve never really cared for Memecoins, and tend to focus on POW governance tokens for long term value.

Seems the “interesting times” of that Chinese Proverb are upon us.

On the LTF (1D) Point and Figure, the formation is currently printing a distribution pattern, completing Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Phase C in a distributive phase generally reveals itself through a (or some) strong Upward Thrust (UT) and/or a (or some) Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD).

The formation has already printed a Shakeout Distribution Spring to the $89,200 handle in Phase B, and subsequently printed the first Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $105,800 handle signaling the beginning of Phase C distribution had started. The formation printed a subsequent UTAD to the $109,200 handle - all typical activity we would expect to see in Phase C of a distribution cycle. The following Test of that UTAD at the $106,400 handle, printed a lower high and signaled both (i) the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) for Phase C of this distribution cycle, and (ii) the end of Phase C of this distribution cycle.

Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is generally signaled when the formation prints a Major Sign Of Weakness (MSOW) which “Breaks the Ice” of the lower level of support within the Trade Range.

This sets up an excellent Risk/Reward opportunity for a potential short swing trade position.

The current formation suggests that a move to the $90,600 handle is in play in the near term as Phase C of this distribution cycle completes and moves into Phase D. There is a potential longer near-term play for $85,600 as the formation moves into the final phase (Phase E) of this distribution cycle. Provided the LPSY formed on the Return to Ice move tops out at the $92,800 handle the Horizontal Price Count should be accurate.

Always remember this is not trading advice.

Outside of that, Happy Trading.