Bitcoin - Dooms Day is Upon Us... Again!
Mis à jour
Once again the sky is falling and the usual suspects are calling for Armageddon. They are no longer just bears, they are Dooms Day Profits! Yet there is no evidence to support such a theory. Sure we are down since December there is no denying this, but over the past 7 months the 5800 level has held forming a consolidation triangle. This is a consolidation pattern not the end of the world. To be clear we can still move lower, and the structure is implying some further pain, but to think this is the end is simply denying the facts.
Do as I say not as I do!
We do not have to look any further than Goldman Sachs for evidence this is complete crap. The fake news continues to put fear into the herd like a nervous sheep in a flock calling for lions abound. This has the herd running every direction and eventually right into the lion's den. Contrary to the click bait fake news sites, Goldman has NO intent on shelving products that provide exposure for their clients. The CFO' Chavez was clear they were moving forward because "clients want it".
Unlike the so called "analysts" that are trading forex and cryptos with $400 accounts in their mom's basement, of which their only investment has been a Schwinn bicycle so they can deliver pizza's on the weekend, Goldman Sach's does not play with chump change. You need to have 2 million just to open an account and 10 million invested with them to be in their "wealth management" group. This is the elite of the elite and are some of the wealthiest individuals in the world. These are the "clients" that want Bitcoin exposure.
We always mention follow the money, we have written several articles on it recently to boot. So are you going to listen to some penny ante analyst with a whopping 3 years of crypto trading experience, that still lives at home, or to what Goldman Sach's is telling you? Not that GS has come out telling everyone to buy, but its where they are putting their money.
Recent Circle hires:
Gus Coldebella - New Chief Legal Officer former General Counsel at the DHS' where he oversaw more than 1700 lawyers
Robert Bench - Former compliance leader at Santander and the US Treasury
Carla Cariiveau - 18 year veteran at the SEC' and Finra'
Charles Heenan - Former securities and commodities lawyer at Swiss Re and Citigrou'p
Blair Halliday - Former compliance officer at ICE' and Pay Safe
Lisa LoGerfo - Senior Legal Counsel
YEP sounds like cryptos are dead alright! Maybe they need to reach out to MrXXXXTrader who have the real insight as to where the market is going! Zero right! Maybe they can send a letter to the former US' Treasury compliance leader and high officials at the SEC' that you can not buy a cup of coffee' with Bitcoin'. Goldman must not be aware of this and are guiding their billion dollar clients down a rabbit hole.
The market continues to show weakness as we pullback through major support levels. However the market over the past 7 months has found a bottom between 5800 and 6400 for the most part. Four times this zone has held. So now everyone is NOW throwing in the towel? I understand many with a whopping 3 years of experience in a bull market, are shocked and awed by this pullback. After all for 3 years they were geniuses after finding their dongle from 2012 used for buying chronic on the silk road exchange. Now it gets real, gone are the days of lottery ticket winners who are now financial experts and are masters of trading cryptos. This market has attracted real traders and real investors, and most of these guy's accounts will simply go "Up In Smoke". Mainly due to over trading!
As a swing trader this market is on hold. There is no reason to be trading this market period! The worst thing for a new trader is a 3 year bull market. Makes you feel like a genius. I remember it well in 1996-2001 all the tech experts. Then the Real Estate flippers in 2003-2008 all real estate experts. That gas station owner that sold his station to flip houses because it was so profitable, bankrupt 2010. Yet those that had experience came in and bought it up. I remember when they were calling for the Real Estate market would take decades to recover.
Below is a broader view of the overall correction. This is a typical consolidation pattern and the longer it trades in consolidation the more likely it is to be a continuation of the broader up trend. This is how markets work. Remember when everyone was calling for Apple' stock was dead and obsolete I bought. I remember all the amateurs calling for the death of oi in 2016. As a proud owner of a Chevy 1500 and with most of my buddies owning trucks and SUV's, not knowing anyone that owns a prius or tesla I thought, who are they kidding? How do you get the 6' smoker in a prius for a BBQ' in the trunk? Toyota and Tesla have some challenges to resolve these issues.
Range bound markets offer opportunities and even though the position is right, the structure is not. I am also a realist. The structure looks horrible right now and is simply not right for trading. This is a gambler's market. You know the guy that has to always make a trade? The guy that always seems to be on the right side of every trade? Just in the 2 hours it takes to write this article there was a spike. Who saw that coming? Maybe we get a setup in the next 24-48 hours maybe not.
As long as the 4400 level holds, and we are a long ways from there, there is no reason to be screaming the sky is falling. If you are a LONG TERM investor these levels offer an opportunity to add a little to the portfolio. This is not an all in position, but a small position into weakness is never a bad INVESTMENT. I capitalized it so the trolls who do not understand the difference between investing and trading see it clearly.
The irony is those that throw up the same pattern on an hourly chart and scream "continuation" are the same calling for doomsday. They even copy a typical ABCDE pattern and say see it must happen I found this on Google' Search. The second chart below is that same pattern. This is the monthly so the pattern does not evolve over an hour or even days. It takes months and this is exactly what we are seeing. Can we go lower? YES but other than calling out the coffee pattern provide some proof? Where's the evidence Bitcoin' is dead?
The spike was pretty descent here. Wake up to 6100 start writing, at the end it's at 6400. Nice!
Do as I say not as I do!
We do not have to look any further than Goldman Sachs for evidence this is complete crap. The fake news continues to put fear into the herd like a nervous sheep in a flock calling for lions abound. This has the herd running every direction and eventually right into the lion's den. Contrary to the click bait fake news sites, Goldman has NO intent on shelving products that provide exposure for their clients. The CFO' Chavez was clear they were moving forward because "clients want it".
Unlike the so called "analysts" that are trading forex and cryptos with $400 accounts in their mom's basement, of which their only investment has been a Schwinn bicycle so they can deliver pizza's on the weekend, Goldman Sach's does not play with chump change. You need to have 2 million just to open an account and 10 million invested with them to be in their "wealth management" group. This is the elite of the elite and are some of the wealthiest individuals in the world. These are the "clients" that want Bitcoin exposure.
We always mention follow the money, we have written several articles on it recently to boot. So are you going to listen to some penny ante analyst with a whopping 3 years of crypto trading experience, that still lives at home, or to what Goldman Sach's is telling you? Not that GS has come out telling everyone to buy, but its where they are putting their money.
Recent Circle hires:
Gus Coldebella - New Chief Legal Officer former General Counsel at the DHS' where he oversaw more than 1700 lawyers
Robert Bench - Former compliance leader at Santander and the US Treasury
Carla Cariiveau - 18 year veteran at the SEC' and Finra'
Charles Heenan - Former securities and commodities lawyer at Swiss Re and Citigrou'p
Blair Halliday - Former compliance officer at ICE' and Pay Safe
Lisa LoGerfo - Senior Legal Counsel
YEP sounds like cryptos are dead alright! Maybe they need to reach out to MrXXXXTrader who have the real insight as to where the market is going! Zero right! Maybe they can send a letter to the former US' Treasury compliance leader and high officials at the SEC' that you can not buy a cup of coffee' with Bitcoin'. Goldman must not be aware of this and are guiding their billion dollar clients down a rabbit hole.
The market continues to show weakness as we pullback through major support levels. However the market over the past 7 months has found a bottom between 5800 and 6400 for the most part. Four times this zone has held. So now everyone is NOW throwing in the towel? I understand many with a whopping 3 years of experience in a bull market, are shocked and awed by this pullback. After all for 3 years they were geniuses after finding their dongle from 2012 used for buying chronic on the silk road exchange. Now it gets real, gone are the days of lottery ticket winners who are now financial experts and are masters of trading cryptos. This market has attracted real traders and real investors, and most of these guy's accounts will simply go "Up In Smoke". Mainly due to over trading!
As a swing trader this market is on hold. There is no reason to be trading this market period! The worst thing for a new trader is a 3 year bull market. Makes you feel like a genius. I remember it well in 1996-2001 all the tech experts. Then the Real Estate flippers in 2003-2008 all real estate experts. That gas station owner that sold his station to flip houses because it was so profitable, bankrupt 2010. Yet those that had experience came in and bought it up. I remember when they were calling for the Real Estate market would take decades to recover.
Below is a broader view of the overall correction. This is a typical consolidation pattern and the longer it trades in consolidation the more likely it is to be a continuation of the broader up trend. This is how markets work. Remember when everyone was calling for Apple' stock was dead and obsolete I bought. I remember all the amateurs calling for the death of oi in 2016. As a proud owner of a Chevy 1500 and with most of my buddies owning trucks and SUV's, not knowing anyone that owns a prius or tesla I thought, who are they kidding? How do you get the 6' smoker in a prius for a BBQ' in the trunk? Toyota and Tesla have some challenges to resolve these issues.
Range bound markets offer opportunities and even though the position is right, the structure is not. I am also a realist. The structure looks horrible right now and is simply not right for trading. This is a gambler's market. You know the guy that has to always make a trade? The guy that always seems to be on the right side of every trade? Just in the 2 hours it takes to write this article there was a spike. Who saw that coming? Maybe we get a setup in the next 24-48 hours maybe not.
As long as the 4400 level holds, and we are a long ways from there, there is no reason to be screaming the sky is falling. If you are a LONG TERM investor these levels offer an opportunity to add a little to the portfolio. This is not an all in position, but a small position into weakness is never a bad INVESTMENT. I capitalized it so the trolls who do not understand the difference between investing and trading see it clearly.
The irony is those that throw up the same pattern on an hourly chart and scream "continuation" are the same calling for doomsday. They even copy a typical ABCDE pattern and say see it must happen I found this on Google' Search. The second chart below is that same pattern. This is the monthly so the pattern does not evolve over an hour or even days. It takes months and this is exactly what we are seeing. Can we go lower? YES but other than calling out the coffee pattern provide some proof? Where's the evidence Bitcoin' is dead?
The spike was pretty descent here. Wake up to 6100 start writing, at the end it's at 6400. Nice!
Note
Nothing has changed on this, I did adjust a few things. Clear view of the consolidation.Note
Nothing has changed on this chart in months. Still the same.Note
Bitcoin looks weak here implying we may see some lower prices in the short term.Keep in mind shorting at extreme lows is no different then buying at extreme highs. We are still neutral on the market until the market meets our criteria for a Long Trade Setup. (we only trade long this market)
Our criterion is not based on moving averages or other lagging indicators it is based on price structure, position and a trigger. There is actually a trigger forming short here but this is a risky trade.
Note
There are several stock trade setups we are looking at in the meantime.
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