Retest of 42-43K level to the moon

10 mai

I believe Bitcoin will likely drop to $42,000 - $43,000, which aligns with the Volume Profile Value Area High (VAH) of the range from mid-October 2020 until now. Simultaneously, this level also corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement between the low from November 2022 and the current all-time high (ATH). Additionally, it intersects with the green trendline in my chart.

Since mid-October 2020, Bitcoin has been in a significant consolidation phase, during which, after marking the cycle low at $15,500 in late November 2022, we revisited the Point of Control (POC) in March 2023 and then broke out above the VAH of this range. It's now time to revisit the VAH, flip it into support and start the real parabolic move.

Within the complete cycle, I believe there are two consolidation phases:

First Phase:

1. ATH → Bottom Formation → Breakout Attempt
   
2. Significant Retrace to the POC as VAH fails to act as support
   
3. Initial Bull Run that leads to the Second Phase consolidation
   

Second Phase:

1. Bottom Formation → Retrace to POC first → Breakout Attempt
   
2. Retraces to the VAH, flip it into support
   
3. Parabolic Run
   

After these two consolidation phases are completed, a parabolic run typically follows, leading to the next ATH and subsequent consolidation (Phase 1).