BTC and a new era. Even higher before correction?

Mis à jour

From what I can see, we are leaving the channel we have lived in for just under a year and forming a new one. The question is, what direction does it go in? I am seeing Youtube videos of people who have never invested in anything in their life other that the stock market just before it tanked and are now jumping in and putting it all in to Bitcoin... I see a lot of chat from new people who don't know the difference between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple. Follow the arrows for guess/explanation. We are still way over bought, but that doesn't mean we can't go higher. From a TD time momentum perspective, tomorrow tells us to sell, this week tells us to sell, this month tells us to sell. Also, keep in mind, once we find the roof of our new channel, assuming it goes up, we still need to find the basement. I will also be waiting and watching the CME and would not be the least bit surprised it BTC gets shorted in a big way as soon as it gets listed come the 18th. Another high risk trade, but lets see what it does... My guess... higher...

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Cleaned it up just a bit using the 1hr chart.

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So, here we are. The shape of this one looks... off, but we have to wait and see. If it was going higher I think it would have earlier; however, the support held so we are still in the game. Lets see what happens...

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This is tough. We are out, but right at 11k which could be a psychological number for people.

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After breaking out we rallied as the TA suggested. At this point I would suggest looking for an exit. RSI is extremely high and TD daily, weekly and monthly all now tell us to find an exit. We may go as high as the pink trend line at the top which would put us just over , but don't get greedy. Good luck and take profits.

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My target is the circle. Be ready to exist or if we get a significant sell off. 1hr chart based on time momentum suggest we will see a sell off around 2:00 pm EDT.

4hr chart may take us higher and further to the X before a correction starts.

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I hope you weren't greedy and exited. Looking at the supports, the first one which I did not consider major in the least bit did hold the first drop. The second two, one I missed and the other... well I now know what the random red line I found on my chart earlier was... fat figure dragged it off while using the mobile app because I forgot to click the lock... that is really annoying... anyways, looks like we are getting a bull trap. I could be wrong, but I do not recommend chasing this. We have to wait and see, but I have a feeling our all time high is in for a bit.

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Appears the support continues to hold and we possibly could get a rally to a new all time high. I could be wrong, but this bounce doesn't look strong enough to take us higher. If we go back down to the support, you can expect to go lower.

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Here's what to watch. Let's see how it plays out. If it breaks out (up) we will likely see a new all time high, but they still would not change my view, yet, regarding a coming corrections.

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So technically we did break out... before entering this trade I would want to see the 2 candle trade and hold over the top of the 1 candle. RSI is also very high. I think this is a false breakout and will loose steam, but lets see what happens. If we can get and hold above the 1 candle I would feel better, but I just don't see it happening with the RSI being so high. If you bought the breakout, I would look for an exit. I think it will dip from here. Continue to watch the support and a breakdown of it when we dip.

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I'm sorry I'm being so noncommittal. I just do not trust this break out. I'm looking for a breakdown again. The teal line is our previous all time high. Getting above that line makes things look a lot more bullish. Right now we are at a weird spot and when things are strange, sideline for a bit a watch. Lets see if we can get above the all time high. If we can do it, just eyeballing, 12.5k ish could be a target.

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I ran myself to hard and started seeing what I wanted to see and not what was there. Here is what I am watching now. Keep your eye on 50MA and how the price interacts. If we start trading below it I would see that as a bad sign. I'm guessing we will see a mini dip, then break through to new all time highs. Target will be near or to the pink line, which is not fully set, but I feel reasonably good about where it is. If we get close to the pink line I will be watching very closely. Continue to be on guard for any sort of break down of the triangle or significant trading below 50MA.

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I was really hoping to see the 2 candle trade above the high of the 1, but I just wouldn't do it.... still here in limbo.

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The longer this keeps up, the more inclined I am to say we will see something like all those green dots.

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Finally! Looks to be breaking down. Possibly the start of the correction?

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I dragged the triangle a bit further out and it did allow for us to stay within it, so technically it never broke down. We now have broken up and have a 2 candle trading higher than the top of the 1 candle on the 1hr chart with a reversal pattern, but RSI is over bought and MACD looks like it wants to drop. Things get tricky when you get mixed single like this. I'm still not confident to enter back in. Looks too much like a bull trap.

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Maybe something I should clarify. There is enough to enter at the top of the 1 candle, but we'd be aiming for a shot term trade. It is getting late where I am and I don't have it in me to stay up all night looking for an exit. So for me, I am not confident enough to enter and not wake up all night checking to see if the price crashed. It you are staying up all night, I wish you luck. Don't get greedy, we are still way over bought on all the longer time period charts.

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Appears we should follow the TA and not our guts... So despite that I wanted to see a dip, we've now gone up and hit the pink trend line and possibly confirmed the top of our longer term channel. This is a really good thing from my perspective, assuming we dip/correct from here. If we rally again and blow through the trend line I will have to find a new trend line and it's going go look very parabolic. A parabolic trend line would be one thing if we had more adoption, but I'm just not seeing. Meaning we'd have a parabolic trend line based on speculation... obviously, this would make me worried. Speculation can drive us up much much higher, but will correct spectacularly. I got in to crypto, because I believe it is a better way forward, not to buy a Lambo. Let's hope this trend line is respected. If it is, next we need to find the basement.

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I'm a bit lost for words right now, but want to show you what things look like.

At our current rate without a significant correction, we could hit $200,000 in March... I just don't see how this keeps up.

I've updated to a less conservative trend line. If this one doesn't hold....

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Sorry, that is ~$21,000 in March.

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I'm a bit lost for words. As you can see we are headed straight up in a parabolic way. The less conservative trend line held for a few hours and we did get a mini dip after the last post, but it appears once the asian markets woke up we blew right through it. Above is all I have left. If things don't slow down we will hit the yellow grand trend line on the 9th at a price right around 20k. If we get through the yellow line and continue our trajectory without a correct, we will hit the top of our grand channel early Jan. at a price around $150,000.... This can't keep up.

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I'm sure BTC will have me looking the fool by morning, but volume looks to be tapering off and I'm looking for a crossover on MACD. Will be very interesting to see how the supports hold up. Most of the supports at this level likely won't provide much resistance until $11,800ish, maybe $12,800. But then again, people seem to be on a frenzy to buy any sort of dip. Will be interesting to watch this one....

As insane and possibly damaging to people as it could be, secretly I would like to see us touch the yellow line we've been under for years. It did dawned on me, I may need to fine tune the placement of the yellow line. I put it there weeks ago and it was more of a general placement. Didn't think it would come in to play this soon. TradeingView is a bit buggy right now, so I'll try to do it later.

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MACD cross. Looks to be our first significant cross since the 3rd of Dec. Technically there is a sport where these last town candle have hit. I realized I didn't mark it just after posting the last update. I expect this support to break.

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50MA and support coming up. Watching to see if we get a bounce, but I think there is too much momentum downward and we will continue to drop.

News has broken South Korea will ban Bitcoin securities and rumors are the US is back pedaling the futures.

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Just logged in an all my supports were missing. Chart must have backed up from my mobile... one day I'll figure it out. Anyways, we are getting a dip and likely the start of a correction. I am now watching the 4 hour chart, which we are seeing a MACD crossover on. I expect further downward movement and will be watching the more major supports at $12.8 and $11.8 as well as 50 MA on 4hr for possible bounces or break downs.

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If 50 MA breaks down on 1hr we're going to see a bearish formation.

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I just want to point out BTC really wants to complete it's Christmas tree formation for you for the holidays...

1hr looks like it could want to rally. 4 hr still looks like it wants to go down. 50 MA on 1hr is providing support. I tend to go with the longer time period chart in these cases, but will be keeping a close eye on the 1hr looking for a reversal pattern that may be forming right now or a candle that closes under the moving average.

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1hr

4r

Chance of a break out and possibly new all time highs. Be very careful of a bull trap though. Really it won't be until we see a double top that we will be in the clear. If you trade this break out, just be careful.

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This madness isn't going to end. Higher.

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So this break out came out of the gates very weak. I was about to acquire a position to ride up to $18-20K, but just couldn't get comfortable with what I saw. Was watching the 1m charts, which I don't do often, and the reversals just didn't rally strong enough to make up for the sell offs following TD 9s. Looks like resistance line is now acting as a support as well as 50 MA on 1h . Watching for break down or the price to ride down the support. Volume looks to be dropping off, which tends to not be a good sign.

The weekend has started and people are getting home. Things tend to either flatline or get real crazy over the weekend. Guess we will know soon enough.

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Wrong pic above.

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We continue to ride the support down. At some point is is going to break. I expect to see a faster movement downward after ~14k. Next major supports that could bounce the drop are at ~12.8k and 11.8k.

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First support hit. Chance for a bounce here, but I'm doubtful. More likely a down weekend just in time for Wallstreet to short on Cboe on Monday. Watch for the support to now become resistance.

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So we followed the trend line down. I meant trend line to be resistance above not, support. Sorry.

I was busy with my little dude this morning so couldn't get on to update, but a pennant formed and we broke out. Looks like we jumped ~$1,000! It's early to call it, but watch for another pennant to form here. If it forms watch for a break out or down. There is a good chance we are going higher today if we see a pennant form here, but be careful. The game is likely going to change soon with the futures so close. I would stick to day trading if you are chasing this action and watch closely at what happens tomorrow.... or just HODL!

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Possible rising wedge to be aware of. This could be a bearish signal.

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Not really sure what to make it this. Wedge broke down, then jumped back up and hit the top of the wedge. Now looks like a double wedge?

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Looks like we are in a double top zone, so probably going higher. TD 13 and 9 coming up on 4hr chart. Just something to watch for later tonight.

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TD 9 13 on 4hr chart now. RSI and MACD also look ready for a cool down. We should get a dip soon, but can't chart a support right now.

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Our cloud has been lifted. RSI is high, so I expect some pull back then up. Tomorrow... new all time highs likely.

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Cup and handle.

Should get a pull back in a little over an hour then make our move to new all time high.

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Nailed it.

I'm looking for a small rally that will stop below our all time high then a dip in a few hours. Shouldn't be anything too major though. Probably in the $1,000 range, but will keep an eye on it.

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Sorry, Looks like I posted the wrong chart above missing the support just below. I tend to hang out in the Crypto Geeks room on Telegram. I posted the correct one in there. Feel free to swing by. If you join the private room, tell them I sent you.

t.me/crypto_geeks_investing

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We should be getting a good dip looking at the 1hr chart. 9 13 9. Likely going to bounce soon when RSI gets to over sold range, then drop back down.

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I was hoping to dip a bit further, but looks like we found support on MA and now heading back up.

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I may have spoke too soon. If we can break through MA then we can continue down, but RSI is in over sold zone now.

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Watching to see if 50MA will give us a good enough bounce. If not I will be watching for the TD 9 count to complete to get back in.

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Be careful. BTC may be forming a giant rising wedge.

BMoom

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