BTCUSD as an example of Technical Analysis denial
Technical Analysis is pattern prediction, and by extension, statistical probability. I believe in it, I believe that the numbers tell us what they are doing, but it's getting the RIGHT technical analysis in play. This chart is a great example.
Earlier this week, I published this same chart with the waves from the BTC 2.77% ATH 2.09% as being a prediction of the fifth Elliott wave stopping at $4,800.
Take the same chart, w/ two more days of data, and you can now count a complete 8 wave Elliott Wave - a 5 point wave move up, w/ a 3 point wave correction. Sure, there's a whole lot of activity within the 3 wave correction- there are other abc , i ii iii 1.55% , head and shoulders and lots of other patterns and noise going on. But now, it's possible to imagine a world where $4,800 isn't tested, rather, we're taking (more or less) a $10,000 floor of support, w/ a new Elliott Wave forming w/ the most recent points 1,2,3 and 4 - 5 is a mystery atm.
Which one is right? I'm not sure A&B pop the trend channel. I don't know if this is a correction or not - I don't trust Elliott Wave until I have at least a 4 count wave, or a 7th count wave (5+2 correction points). But I do love EW theory, along with others. What does Candlestick analysis say? What about money movements between asset markets? Who, in the name of Batman and Robin, bought $400 MILLION worth of BTC 2.77% at this point, that has helped to create support? What is the song being sung through the noise of the crowd?
I'm not making a target/escape hatch TA prediction here. I'm pointing out that while TA gets you more money than it looses you, there can be so much noise that contrary, alternative or out-of-scope* action can take place. Which TA was right? This is where the need for market sophistication comes in. If this stuff were easy, there would never be a market out of equilibrium.
*There is no Elliott Wave in the world that can withstand a contrary move if <insert the WMD of your choice here> detonates. At that point, it's time to set aside TA and review and implement preparations against the inevitable Zombie Apocalypse. :)
Earlier this week, I published this same chart with the waves from the BTC 2.77% ATH 2.09% as being a prediction of the fifth Elliott wave stopping at $4,800.
Take the same chart, w/ two more days of data, and you can now count a complete 8 wave Elliott Wave - a 5 point wave move up, w/ a 3 point wave correction. Sure, there's a whole lot of activity within the 3 wave correction- there are other abc , i ii iii 1.55% , head and shoulders and lots of other patterns and noise going on. But now, it's possible to imagine a world where $4,800 isn't tested, rather, we're taking (more or less) a $10,000 floor of support, w/ a new Elliott Wave forming w/ the most recent points 1,2,3 and 4 - 5 is a mystery atm.
Which one is right? I'm not sure A&B pop the trend channel. I don't know if this is a correction or not - I don't trust Elliott Wave until I have at least a 4 count wave, or a 7th count wave (5+2 correction points). But I do love EW theory, along with others. What does Candlestick analysis say? What about money movements between asset markets? Who, in the name of Batman and Robin, bought $400 MILLION worth of BTC 2.77% at this point, that has helped to create support? What is the song being sung through the noise of the crowd?
I'm not making a target/escape hatch TA prediction here. I'm pointing out that while TA gets you more money than it looses you, there can be so much noise that contrary, alternative or out-of-scope* action can take place. Which TA was right? This is where the need for market sophistication comes in. If this stuff were easy, there would never be a market out of equilibrium.
*There is no Elliott Wave in the world that can withstand a contrary move if <insert the WMD of your choice here> detonates. At that point, it's time to set aside TA and review and implement preparations against the inevitable Zombie Apocalypse. :)
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