10/14 Bull run if THIS level confirmed as support

15 oct.

Overview:
The U.S. observed Columbus Day on Monday, with most businesses closed, but trading activity was still alive and well. The SSPY closed its fifth consecutive green day, reaching a new all-time high, while the QQQ approaches its own record. Due to the holiday, the Federal Reserve didn't release any data, but tomorrow we'll see the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and by Thursday, we’ll have jobless claims numbers, retail sales, home builder confidence, and business inventory reports.

Interestingly, the CME Watch Tool is now showing a 16.4% chance of no rate cut in November, up from just 10% last Friday. This shift may be in response to an overheated equities market. Meanwhile, Monday saw a wave of buying activity in crypto ETFs, with big names like BlackRock, Grayscale, and even Fidelity getting involved. ETH also caught BlackRock’s attention.

For a more reliable corporate earnings calendar, try this updated tool: finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings?from=2024-10-13&to=2024-10-19&day=2024-10-14.

BTC TA:
W: Last week, BTCUSDT opened at $62,810 and closed at $62,845, forming a large indecisive doji candle but managing to stay above the Bollinger Band middle line (BB MA). Throughout the week, the price showed lower highs and lower lows until Asian bulls stepped in on Monday morning. While U.S. traders were off for the holiday, Asian traders pushed BTC past its previous high, stopping just short of the crucial $66,550 mark. Keep an eye on 62.7k—it’s a key level on the weekly, 3-month, yearly, and current bull run (since October 2023) point of control. Anything above this level suggests a potential breakout toward 70k, while falling below it could indicate a bearish trend. To confirm, we need to see 62.7k act as solid support. We’ve already had two fake breakouts, so the chances of another are slim, but not impossible.

D: Over the last four days, BTC quickly moved from the bottom to the top of its Bollinger Bands. Coinbase reported 13.5k transactions on Monday—a strong volume, but not as high as in January or October 2023, when this bull run began. This suggests that larger institutional players are still waiting on the sidelines, watching closely. Despite the Fed’s rate cut and China’s $25 billion stimulus, global liquidity has been declining for the last 29 days.

4h: The RSI has hit 75, indicating an overbought condition. If you pull a Fibonacci retracement, the 0.618 level aligns with $64 k, which also coincides with previous weekly and daily resistance levels. This also matches the October 7th high, forming a critical level of interest.

1h: On Monday at 11 am Shanghai time, a large green candle kicked off a rally. Ten hours later, New York bulls joined the action, extending the pump. The rally lasted 19 hours, pushing BTC up by 6.23%.

Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins are moving in tandem with BTC, but this rally isn’t as much about alts as it is about Bitcoin. While BTC gained 5%, ETH, SOL, and NEAR only posted gains of 6.x%, and none have reached their previous highs. SUI, APT, and TAO have even corrected slightly after their substantial gains of 100% or more over the last 30-40 days, leaving them room to consolidate.

Bull Case: We’re on the verge of exiting the bull flag pattern. Once the global liquidity index starts rising again, markets will likely be flooded with cheap money, fueling risk-on assets like crypto. A bounce off the 62.7k level will confirm it as support, pushing the bullish narrative.

Bear Case: If we see a third fake breakout, it could trap all the bulls.

Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 56, still in Neutral territory but just 4 points away from Greed.

Prediction: The outlook remains bullish, provided we don’t see another fake breakout, and 62.7k can be established as a solid support level.