Alt Season Does Not Start Until End of 2025

As the logarithmic chart indicates, BTC follows a 4 year pattern with typical downward trends every 4 years.

Over time there has been a theories presented as to why this happens:

• One can conjecture, this is due to tightening monetary conditions that present every four years as central banks around the world tighten supply. Some research that goes to show evidence in this direction can be found here.
• Others have indicated this is due to the so-called Bitcoin halving phenomenon, as supply tightens every four or so years.
  

If the chart is of any evidence, it is evidence of the former, than the later.

How does this relate to alt coins?

Another phenomenon that highly correlates with the 4 year pattern is BBTC.D/SKYLP.

Alt coin market cap dominance do better when BTC prices are going down, as opposed to when they are going up.

We can imagine this as follows: BTC price goes up in loose monetary conditions, and BTC price goes down in tight monetary conditions, however, BTC being more liquid than alt coins generally goes down faster than alt coins during times of deleveraging.

So, we can hold the opposite to be true as well - BTC, being more liquid will dominate the next year, until tighter monetary conditions arrive, at which point probably some alt coins will do better.