BTCUSD: Avoid The Noise. No Retrace? No Entry.

30 juil. 2018

BTCUSD update: Price is still gyrating around the low 8Ks which is nothing more than randomness. The fact that yesterday's low of 8123 was just taken out also adds to the retrace argument as well. We have been patiently waiting to buy into the more attractive prices relative to this formation which are below the 7800 level.

I published a report earlier on S.C. that explained the specific levels that we are waiting for. In that report I wrote that buying bullish breakouts in a consolidating market is more likely to lead to a fake out. We are looking for the opposite scenario, which would be a false bearish break.

The 7450 minor support (.382 of the recent bullish structure) is the level that needs to be maintained in order for the trend to continue. A close below and that would increase the chances of a broader range bound market rather than a decisively bullish one.

Any push into the area above 8500 at this point is not a location to initiate new longs. In fact I wrote that this area is a place to lock in profits because of the bearish reversal zone boundary located just above.

In summary, timing a market is not about catching "the next move". It is about defining where the highest probability trades can occur and waiting for the market to align. It is not about profit, it is about probability. That is the mentality that facilitates long term consistency in this business.

Flat is a position that preserves capital but more importantly preserves confidence. Without it, fear is more likely to guide your decisions and you are more likely to be reactive.

If this market refuses to retrace and provide a solid high probability opportunity, then there is no reason to trade. Forced trades may work on occasion, but do not cover the losses and costs that are incurred over time. Stack probabilities in your favor by waiting for quality, not reacting to quantity.