Bitcoin attacks Iran

5 oct.

Bitcoin Nears Its Mid-Cycle Low

By now, you’ve probably heard the news about Iran's attack on Israel, and maybe you’ve linked this to the recent Bitcoin dip. People fear war, so they sell Bitcoin, right?

But here's the reality: cycles control the market, not the headlines.

We could point to unemployment data, China's monetary policy, or even missile strikes.

But in reality, the cycles are in control and the narrative is appended to justify the correction.

If the mid-cycle lows were not due, the narratives would be framed in a bullish context to explain away the upside.
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There are two potential scenarios left for this cycle. Yes, two—and since we’re mid-cycle, things get riskier for Bitcoin. Here’s what could happen:

Scenario #1: Cycle Topped at Day 23, We're Heading Down

If this plays out, Bitcoin may print a failed daily cycle in the coming days, sinking towards the next 60-day cycle low, possibly around $50,000 or even lower. That might sound hard to believe given the recent market excitement and the famous "Uptober."

But that brings us to another common myth: Bitcoin Seasonality. People say Bitcoin always struggles in September and soars in October, but the real force at play is cycles, not seasons.

People don’t fully understand cycles. They rely on “Seasonality” or look to news headlines about "missiles" and "attacks" to explain Bitcoin’s behavior. But it’s the cycles that really drive the price. So, what does the 1W cycle tell us about Bitcoin now?

And here we come to the scenario #2
Scenario #2: Consolidation, Then a Right-Translated 60-Day Cycle

The 1W Cycle (red line) is our best guide for the intermediate trend, and right now, it's pointing upward. This suggests we shouldn’t worry too much about the short-term dip. Meanwhile, the 3D Cycle (violet line) is trending down, so we’re likely to see some consolidation over the next week or so—maybe 3-5 days.


That's a game of probabilities.