Bitcoin Weekly Review August 25th - August 31st
Two scenarios for Bitcoin. Both options will result in lower prices in the short term. However, one is bullish, the other is bearish:
My view is that the correction period is not over. I am intellectually honest enough to entertain both options, but I must be truthful with myself and you: I don’t think the Bull’s time has come.
TLDR: The bulls have a chance as long as the price is above 60.3K.
1. Bullish Scenario: According to this scenario, 49K was the end point of a wave 4 correction, and Bitcoin is about to complete wave 5. If this is the case, the target is between the 0.618 and 1:1 retracement. In numbers: 79.2K – 97.9K.
Supporting evidence for the bullish scenario:
A. HH on the daily TF.
B. Bitcoin formed the cup of a Cup & Handle, which could lead to a breakout with a price target of 76.5K and the completion of the higher degree 5th wave.
2. Bearish Scenario: According to this scenario, Bitcoin is not done with the correction. Whether Bitcoin is a more extensive correction that will result in much lower prices or is still in wave 4 is irrelevant.
Supporting Evidence for the Bearish Scenario:
A. The PA has moved in three waves, ABC. A three-wave move is a corrective structure that continues the higher TF trend down. This is indicative of a shark harmonic with a target of 46.8K.
B. The weekly TF structure is bearish and points to 45K.
C. Bitcoin left wicks to the downside on the higher TFs. The daily week is between 49 - 54K. The weekly wick is between 59K and 58K. This kind of imbalance represents a liquidation opportunity for the MM.
D. No accumulation period. A prolonged accumulation period at the lows must support any substantial price growth. A structure without a base is vulnerable.
Validation and invalidation:
A. Validation: Bitcoin consolidates above 60.3K, the cup and handle pattern is intact, and the bullish scenario is alive.
B. Invalidation: Below 60.3K, the bullish case is unlikely. Below 56K, the bull case is indefensible.
My view is that the correction period is not over. I am intellectually honest enough to entertain both options, but I must be truthful with myself and you: I don’t think the Bull’s time has come.
TLDR: The bulls have a chance as long as the price is above 60.3K.
1. Bullish Scenario: According to this scenario, 49K was the end point of a wave 4 correction, and Bitcoin is about to complete wave 5. If this is the case, the target is between the 0.618 and 1:1 retracement. In numbers: 79.2K – 97.9K.
Supporting evidence for the bullish scenario:
A. HH on the daily TF.
B. Bitcoin formed the cup of a Cup & Handle, which could lead to a breakout with a price target of 76.5K and the completion of the higher degree 5th wave.
2. Bearish Scenario: According to this scenario, Bitcoin is not done with the correction. Whether Bitcoin is a more extensive correction that will result in much lower prices or is still in wave 4 is irrelevant.
Supporting Evidence for the Bearish Scenario:
A. The PA has moved in three waves, ABC. A three-wave move is a corrective structure that continues the higher TF trend down. This is indicative of a shark harmonic with a target of 46.8K.
B. The weekly TF structure is bearish and points to 45K.
C. Bitcoin left wicks to the downside on the higher TFs. The daily week is between 49 - 54K. The weekly wick is between 59K and 58K. This kind of imbalance represents a liquidation opportunity for the MM.
D. No accumulation period. A prolonged accumulation period at the lows must support any substantial price growth. A structure without a base is vulnerable.
Validation and invalidation:
A. Validation: Bitcoin consolidates above 60.3K, the cup and handle pattern is intact, and the bullish scenario is alive.
B. Invalidation: Below 60.3K, the bullish case is unlikely. Below 56K, the bull case is indefensible.
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