Bitcoin is going up, short consolidation phase TA+TRADE PLAN

il y a 7 jours

Bitcoin's price action against USDT on a 1-hour timeframe with several technical indicators and key levels. Here is my technical analysis + trade plan by Blaž Fabjan

Ascending & Descending Trading Channels:

The price is moving between ascending and descending channels. This can indicate phases of higher highs and higher lows (ascending) followed by lower highs and lower lows (descending), which often signals periods of short-term consolidation or corrections.

Resistance Levels:

Multiple resistances are clearly marked on the chart around the price of $68,556.87 and $67,000. The price has struggled to break above these levels multiple times, making it a critical zone to watch for future price action.

Support Levels:

Support is visible around $61,758.48 and $60,301.68, representing strong areas where the price previously rebounded. These levels are essential for managing downside risk.

Consolidation Phase:

The price appears to be consolidating after rejecting the upper resistance line. This phase suggests market indecision or preparation for a breakout.

VMC Cipher_B Divergences:

Divergences in this indicator show potential weakening of the bullish trend, which could signal a pullback. The green and red dots suggest possible points of reversal, important for catching trend changes.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

RSI is at 52.96, indicating the market is neutral but slightly leaning toward the bullish side. If RSI breaks above 70, this could signal overbought conditions, while a drop below 30 would indicate oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator:

Currently in the oversold region (18.22), indicating a possible upward reversal soon. This could hint at a short-term bullish move.

HMA (Hull Moving Average) Histogram:

The HMA is showing a mixed trend, but the upward slope hints at mild bullish momentum that needs confirmation from price action or volume spikes.

Trading Plan

Entry Points:

Long Position: Look for a breakout above $67,000 or $68,556.87, especially with strong volume confirming the upward move. You could set a buy stop order slightly above these levels to capture the momentum.

Short Position: If the price rejects resistance and breaks below $64,500 (the recent low), this could indicate a further decline toward support levels around $61,758.48 or lower.
Stop-Loss:

For long trades, place stop-losses just below $64,500 to minimize risk in case of a fake breakout or false bullish signal.
For short trades, place stop-losses above $67,000, as a break above this could invalidate the bearish trend.

Profit Targets:

Upside Targets: First target is around $70,000 (a psychological round number and historical resistance), followed by $71,000.

Downside Targets: The initial target for a short would be $61,758.48. A break below could see prices test $60,301.68, the lower boundary of this channel.

Risk-Reward Ratio:

Ensure that any trade maintains a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. For instance, if you risk $1,000, you should aim for a reward of $2,000.

Additional Confirmation:

Wait for additional signals, such as volume spikes or confirmation from indicators like RSI or Stochastic, before entering a position. The market could continue to consolidate before choosing a direction.

Time Horizon:

Given that this is an hourly chart, these trades are more suited for short-term to medium-term traders. Ensure to adjust your stops and targets as the market evolves, and check for any upcoming fundamental events (like economic news or regulatory updates) that could impact Bitcoin's price.
By following this plan, you can manage your trades effectively, balancing risk and reward while being prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios.