BTC/USD(Breakdown)Elliott waves 3/5 completed_Heading into ABC~!
Mis à jour
Just briefly.
Bitcoin currently resting on the 0.88% Fibonacci ret. support, forming a bullish fractal. Technically the end target here(E) would be around 5800, although more than enough times we've seen a breakout on D(Hence given the 65% probability).
Furthermore, after completing wave 4(ABC), I wouldn't say that the market would be confident enough to start a new run. Moreover, in the next couple of weeks I can see bitcoin aiming for the 100 Week moving average, which currently is around 4800-5000. Once we hit that support, there's a good chance of a pullback and an uptrend. Too early to analyze such probabilities, however breaking this support if not already said by this point would definitely mean an official bear market(next support 200 Week MA).
Finally, a key thing to add here is that, whenever btc shorts outperform longs in terms of # of contracts we see an immediate pullback and changing of the trend- "Whale play". This can currently be seen here from the ShortsvsLongs indicator down bellow.
-Happy trading folks-
Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy/sell sign, you decide what to do with your own money!//
If you liked my take on Bitcoin , comment your thoughts, agree or follow for more interesting TA's, it's all very well appreciated.
Bitcoin currently resting on the 0.88% Fibonacci ret. support, forming a bullish fractal. Technically the end target here(E) would be around 5800, although more than enough times we've seen a breakout on D(Hence given the 65% probability).
Furthermore, after completing wave 4(ABC), I wouldn't say that the market would be confident enough to start a new run. Moreover, in the next couple of weeks I can see bitcoin aiming for the 100 Week moving average, which currently is around 4800-5000. Once we hit that support, there's a good chance of a pullback and an uptrend. Too early to analyze such probabilities, however breaking this support if not already said by this point would definitely mean an official bear market(next support 200 Week MA).
Finally, a key thing to add here is that, whenever btc shorts outperform longs in terms of # of contracts we see an immediate pullback and changing of the trend- "Whale play". This can currently be seen here from the ShortsvsLongs indicator down bellow.
-Happy trading folks-
Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy/sell sign, you decide what to do with your own money!//
If you liked my take on Bitcoin , comment your thoughts, agree or follow for more interesting TA's, it's all very well appreciated.
Note
12-08 Morning Update.
Bitcoin hit one of the targets sooner then I expected, forming a diamond shape. 6500 could also be a reasonable wave 4 target, so I can definitely see a possible breakdown and continuation of the downtrend if the symmetrical triangle is broke(as part of the not yet build diamond shape).
Otherwise a breakout of the triangle, even though a bit too soon, could maybe be followed by a mini-run to 6800*-7150.
Note
Btc starting to show less and less confidence, almost certain that it will break even lower. As mentioned in the previous update, 6520 or 0.236 is one of the common ret. zones for the 3rd wave and that target was hit.
I'll keep you posted as much as I can.
Note
This is a labelled chart including wave 5 variations.
1. 5450
2. 5000
3. 4800
ABC on wave 4, extended only to 6520(R1), sadly it did not extended to 6800 -0.382 R2. Overall we're in for a bad week, unfortunately.
If anythings unclear or you've got a different opinion, do let me know in the comments, thanks!
Note
Good morning folks. Morning update 15/08.
Breath of small fresh air for the bulls. An uptrend was expected as pointed out previously. Crossing R1(6300), gave the bulls enough confidence to run higher. Now this can be interpreted as bitcoin breaking the "falling peaks pattern" as a good bullish sign. However, on the 4hr ichimoku cloud the price can still be technically considered bearish.
To wrap this update up, unless the prices crosses the previous highs, R2(6540), and then R3(6640), I would not consider entering long. Currently this is still to be considered as wave 2/5(I have moved it up on the chart).
Happy trading folks.
Note
R3(6640) proved as a strong resistance. Despite that, there is a possible recount, that has 6800 as wave 4 target (from fibonnaci). Breaking 6800 decisively, would break the impulsive corrective wave structure, and it will be followed by an uptrend. Otherwise, shorts are still good, and I'd be looking to short around 6800
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