BTC Distribution Scenario - Revised timings

4 mai

Updated Bitcoin scenario - mapped with new, extended timeframe.

It's a scenario pattern that's undoubtedly familiar - everyone's favorite, the Wyckoff distribution trend.

Several elements support this structure are worth noting:

- The distribution phase is occurring just above the previous all-time high (ATH).
- This potential top is showing a monthly bearish divergence vs 2021 ATH.

While the structure of these patterns never perfectly aligns with Wyckoff's illustrations, they often follow key stages marked by significant swings in price. This scenario presents swings of around 25%

The scenario assumes that we are now well within Phase B, past the Sign of Weakness (SOW) below initial support (target price was 59K but final SOW was closer to 56k) and we now move into the Upthrust (UT), target is 75k BTCUSD.

If this scenario holds true, the potential new Bitcoin ATH comes early August at around 80k.

Best, Hard Forky

Initial Scenario Mapping:

12 mai

Note

13 mai

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HL, move up now in progress.

16 mai

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20 mai

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29 mai

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Final leg up in Phase B -

31 mai

Note

Upward Thrust Entries in

4 juin

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17 juin

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limite UT rally - some possible price recovery over next few days

2 juil.

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Flat through to end of August

10 juil.

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Revised SOW - the trends have been profitable but perhaps this pattern is due to run through to 2025