Public going Erratic ? What is Next?
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Hello traders,
Let's take a look at the patterns our brain made for us.
You know, we mention this because our brains tend to create patterns everywhere. We bet you guys see head and shoulders everywhere in the chart, isn't it?
The most important thing about this TA, is to identify the correct context and know when a certain pattern does or does not applies.
It is all very subjective, we know, but as we gain practice and gain experience you tend to somehow grasp the art of TA.
Honestly this is a never ending journey, and trading literally becomes an art,. It requires unlimited patience.
When people tell you that TA is random and does not works, you tell them, well at least is a structured way of analyzing things and make trading plans.
Best thing to do if possible; is to mix all trading styles, within the TA spectrum and fundamentals spectrum when applicable. Never marry one style or the other. Like Bruce Lee said "Be Water my Friend"
I bet the two best traders in the wold will draw different patterns and use some crazy indicator and perhaps analyze the most awkward fundamentals if any,
and most of the time they will just arrive to the same conclusion.
Anyways, let's break this out:
1. We found a broadening range in BTC, meaning behavior is erratic, perhaps there is not too much of institutional participation (according to Richard Schabacker interpretation),
and the public is just going crazy, the public does not knows what to make of this, some panic buy, others panic sell, others do a mix of everything. We bet my friend you have done this in the last week is it not?
2. We think people now are scared and when this thing goes to the upper range they will panic buy, only to see some reversals, if lucky it will rally beyond the range, but ranges are usually very stubborn.
3. We loved how the last green candle on the 4hr chart closed on high volume, meaning the smart people or the lion predators are coming in and buying from all those poor scared impalas. This does not means this statement is entirely true but is very likely.
4. Check out the accumulation/distribution indicator. There is a huge bullish divergence, meaning there has been perhaps people averaging down its cost by buying on every dump.
5. There is a possible harmonic shark pattern (with blue fill), which suggest a possible reversal between its 1.13 fib level (the base of the structure in blue) and the 2.27 extension (horizontal fib in cyan).
6. Volume Profile has its POC level (line in purple at almost exactly 47k).
7. Conclusion: We see this as a broadening range, it is very possible we see a reversal from here to around 47k (between the 0.707 and 0.786 fibs in purple). We base our trading based in this scenario and put targets and stops according to our tolerance to risk. Once we get to this level we need to reevaluate the situation.
8. If this thing decides just to dump deep below the range then all this analysis is invalidated, but we think this possibility is less likely. Nothing is absolute we are trying to determine which play has the highest probability.
Hope this helps broaden your spectrum.
Step by step is the best way, Best of Best
Robertus
Disclaimer: Just an OPINION not investment advice. Always do your own research :)
Hello traders,
Let's take a look at the patterns our brain made for us.
You know, we mention this because our brains tend to create patterns everywhere. We bet you guys see head and shoulders everywhere in the chart, isn't it?
The most important thing about this TA, is to identify the correct context and know when a certain pattern does or does not applies.
It is all very subjective, we know, but as we gain practice and gain experience you tend to somehow grasp the art of TA.
Honestly this is a never ending journey, and trading literally becomes an art,. It requires unlimited patience.
When people tell you that TA is random and does not works, you tell them, well at least is a structured way of analyzing things and make trading plans.
Best thing to do if possible; is to mix all trading styles, within the TA spectrum and fundamentals spectrum when applicable. Never marry one style or the other. Like Bruce Lee said "Be Water my Friend"
I bet the two best traders in the wold will draw different patterns and use some crazy indicator and perhaps analyze the most awkward fundamentals if any,
and most of the time they will just arrive to the same conclusion.
Anyways, let's break this out:
1. We found a broadening range in BTC, meaning behavior is erratic, perhaps there is not too much of institutional participation (according to Richard Schabacker interpretation),
and the public is just going crazy, the public does not knows what to make of this, some panic buy, others panic sell, others do a mix of everything. We bet my friend you have done this in the last week is it not?
2. We think people now are scared and when this thing goes to the upper range they will panic buy, only to see some reversals, if lucky it will rally beyond the range, but ranges are usually very stubborn.
3. We loved how the last green candle on the 4hr chart closed on high volume, meaning the smart people or the lion predators are coming in and buying from all those poor scared impalas. This does not means this statement is entirely true but is very likely.
4. Check out the accumulation/distribution indicator. There is a huge bullish divergence, meaning there has been perhaps people averaging down its cost by buying on every dump.
5. There is a possible harmonic shark pattern (with blue fill), which suggest a possible reversal between its 1.13 fib level (the base of the structure in blue) and the 2.27 extension (horizontal fib in cyan).
6. Volume Profile has its POC level (line in purple at almost exactly 47k).
7. Conclusion: We see this as a broadening range, it is very possible we see a reversal from here to around 47k (between the 0.707 and 0.786 fibs in purple). We base our trading based in this scenario and put targets and stops according to our tolerance to risk. Once we get to this level we need to reevaluate the situation.
8. If this thing decides just to dump deep below the range then all this analysis is invalidated, but we think this possibility is less likely. Nothing is absolute we are trying to determine which play has the highest probability.
Hope this helps broaden your spectrum.
Step by step is the best way, Best of Best
Robertus
Disclaimer: Just an OPINION not investment advice. Always do your own research :)
Note
Still in play...strong rejection at the 40k level. Invalidation would be if it just slices quickly through the bottom blue line.Note
Forgot to mention that the Volume profile or Point of Control (PoC) level is usually the range of prices in which most trades happened. Volume Profile looks a bit exotic but is really simple...imagine slicing the chart horizontally...think Freddy Krueger or the Wolverine slicing horizontally through the chart...for each slice you count the number of trades that happened. The slice that gets the most trades or the most activity is the one that takes the PoC medal. Which is the heaviest slice in terms of trading activity. There you draw the PoC line.Note
not enough bulls. Seems bulls will buy around 38k, there is no demand at current level of 41-43k.Note
if it gets to 38k and price reacts well, then we'll look for bull entries...for the time being, bears are the ones in control. If it goes to fill the gap at around 32k-34k it would be ideal, that perhaps can mark the end of this dump and from there start a new bull run.Note
The gap is in the CME Futures on Bitcoin...gaps are filled 90% of the time.Note
Filling the gap means price comes back to that non traded range of prices. Since markets close in the BTC! CME Futures lots of gaps tend to form and usually price gets them filled by returning to fill that emptiness.Note
Awesome short squeeze. Took longer than expected. We closed all our longs...we are 100% out.Note
Now we wait till the king decides where it wants to go.
“All fixed set patterns are incapable of adaptability or pliability. The truth is outside of all fixed patterns” BL
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