⏱ Time to short, .. No, sorry it's too late ! - LDTP #12
Mis à jour
Let's do the point !
First thing, and it's the reason of the title, my first motivation to start to wrote ideas have been to aware people about premium scams, I know it could be repetitive and boring to hear it, but I saw this platform evoluate, on good side like on bad side, all around the years. I saw this guys, which use premium offer to gain visibility, growth with the explosion of cryptocurrencies. And even if I don't succeed to teach people beginners how to trade, at least I hope I will arrive to protect them from this guys which will never teach them anything but only take their money. That why I will never stop to repeat that again and again in most of my ideas. Today trending ideas are way less instructive than years before. Simply because these guys don't earn money in trading, don't trade and don't know how to profitably trade but act as if they are. Just look the trending ideas page, two weeks ago the same guys which was ALL saying to go long on the top now say to go short, two weeks after the top, two weeks after I said to not buy under a resistance like they was saying because it's how you buy a top of market ... Two weeks later they call the short, ... NO ! We are in a range, in the middle of it, you don't trade it ! You trade the limits of a range, not the middle of it, that a simple rules, but essential. If you missed it, it's too late, wait the next opportunity (we are not here to do coinflips). These guys will never give you advice which help you, they only read a chart like a 5 years old kid can do it. Obviously now everybody can say it's going down. So always take care of who you are following, most of them will guide you wrongly, and if you have the patience to search them, some will bring you solutions.
Now this said, let's speak of the chart. First statement for the short trade I called the 31 of march, if you are in it, you have to pass your stop loss breakeven now. You can't loose any money from it now when you make a R/R superior of 1:1 (that what I usually use but it could be more or less, in all case it made more than 1.66:1 == >13% here, so you have to be breakeven now.). Don't forget to take profits on the 2:1 ratio target if it reach. For the more greedy of you, you can maybe go search the bottom of the channel .
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
Second thing, I started to spoke of volume profiles in the LDTP #11, so I will continue to speak of it if there is interesting things to say. So here we can see we have a leak of volume around $40,300 - $39,600, as we are building a range, it's a little bit unusual. So we can expect some lateralization here at a moment (this cycle or the next one), which invite me to these four scenarios that you can see on the right of the chart :
Here all my plans for the next few days. But in term of larger picture opinion, it's time to speak of a scarier thing.
Do you remenber the idea I posted exactly one month ago ? Yes, ... The Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern (I will update it with the last informations soon)! I didn't hide that I don't like this one, it's never changed but it's also never have been more of actualilty than now.
Why ? The dynamic of the cycle :It's regular, linear, as a last cycle before the spring. And in a linear projection, I think, none scenarios to avoid the spring that I developped in the initial idea can happen. That why I wait a lot a this leak of volume area, to make a stop in this dynamic first, and secondly to maybe expect others scenarios than the spring in this WAP (So we don't want to see the A scenario).
Why this one is scray : Spring is expected to $25,000..., under the weekly support area... More info in the initial idea.
To finish, I said multiple times that I was expecting a 10% move, as it didn't happened on the breakout of the 1 hour channel, I don't think it will happen now (wait today's close). When I see this linear dynamic, I think institutionnals have already reversed their positions in the top range which could explained we don't see it but more a long leak to the bottom for the moment.
In term of big movement, if there is a spring you will see way more than 10% I think but it could be a flush and not a exhaust like as was expected on the channel's breakout.
Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
*Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
First thing, and it's the reason of the title, my first motivation to start to wrote ideas have been to aware people about premium scams, I know it could be repetitive and boring to hear it, but I saw this platform evoluate, on good side like on bad side, all around the years. I saw this guys, which use premium offer to gain visibility, growth with the explosion of cryptocurrencies. And even if I don't succeed to teach people beginners how to trade, at least I hope I will arrive to protect them from this guys which will never teach them anything but only take their money. That why I will never stop to repeat that again and again in most of my ideas. Today trending ideas are way less instructive than years before. Simply because these guys don't earn money in trading, don't trade and don't know how to profitably trade but act as if they are. Just look the trending ideas page, two weeks ago the same guys which was ALL saying to go long on the top now say to go short, two weeks after the top, two weeks after I said to not buy under a resistance like they was saying because it's how you buy a top of market ... Two weeks later they call the short, ... NO ! We are in a range, in the middle of it, you don't trade it ! You trade the limits of a range, not the middle of it, that a simple rules, but essential. If you missed it, it's too late, wait the next opportunity (we are not here to do coinflips). These guys will never give you advice which help you, they only read a chart like a 5 years old kid can do it. Obviously now everybody can say it's going down. So always take care of who you are following, most of them will guide you wrongly, and if you have the patience to search them, some will bring you solutions.
Now this said, let's speak of the chart. First statement for the short trade I called the 31 of march, if you are in it, you have to pass your stop loss breakeven now. You can't loose any money from it now when you make a R/R superior of 1:1 (that what I usually use but it could be more or less, in all case it made more than 1.66:1 == >13% here, so you have to be breakeven now.). Don't forget to take profits on the 2:1 ratio target if it reach. For the more greedy of you, you can maybe go search the bottom of the channel .
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
Second thing, I started to spoke of volume profiles in the LDTP #11, so I will continue to speak of it if there is interesting things to say. So here we can see we have a leak of volume around $40,300 - $39,600, as we are building a range, it's a little bit unusual. So we can expect some lateralization here at a moment (this cycle or the next one), which invite me to these four scenarios that you can see on the right of the chart :
- A : Breakout, nothing to exploit here, it's one of the most probable scenario in the case of an accumulation of Wyckoff and I will spoke more of that later.
- B : V-Turn on the POC, low probability for me (in the perspective we need to make volume that not the best case), that why I will not exploit but it can happen.
- C : Accumulation of Wyckoff on the area, you know I like it. You know also that BTC is one of the best asset to exploit it, because of the amount of retailers, you can find it everywhere in BTC. So not impossible to see it here, a good opportunity to fix the range in the area to make volume and make a spring to the POC. It could be an opportunity to exploit a long trade on lower timeframes but with a little exposure because we are supposed to hit the bottom of the channel before to go back up.
- D : Channel before continuation (flag pattern in chartism), another opportunity to make volume here and then reach the bottom of the daily channel. In this case there is opportunity to exploit the top of the channel (on shorter timeframe) to short the exit to the bottom. It's the most probable scenario in the case we do volume here in this cycle.
Here all my plans for the next few days. But in term of larger picture opinion, it's time to speak of a scarier thing.
Do you remenber the idea I posted exactly one month ago ? Yes, ... The Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern (I will update it with the last informations soon)! I didn't hide that I don't like this one, it's never changed but it's also never have been more of actualilty than now.
Why ? The dynamic of the cycle :It's regular, linear, as a last cycle before the spring. And in a linear projection, I think, none scenarios to avoid the spring that I developped in the initial idea can happen. That why I wait a lot a this leak of volume area, to make a stop in this dynamic first, and secondly to maybe expect others scenarios than the spring in this WAP (So we don't want to see the A scenario).
Why this one is scray : Spring is expected to $25,000..., under the weekly support area... More info in the initial idea.
To finish, I said multiple times that I was expecting a 10% move, as it didn't happened on the breakout of the 1 hour channel, I don't think it will happen now (wait today's close). When I see this linear dynamic, I think institutionnals have already reversed their positions in the top range which could explained we don't see it but more a long leak to the bottom for the moment.
In term of big movement, if there is a spring you will see way more than 10% I think but it could be a flush and not a exhaust like as was expected on the channel's breakout.
Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
*Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
Note
THE WAP INITIAL IDEA (UPDATED SOON)
Note
UPDATE !Like anticipated we can see lateralization on the area, no clear pattern for the moment. A failed pattern of Wyckoff on the 15min timeframe, anticipated exit because of decreasing volumes. We will see if we build a bigger stucture during this long weekend or if we retake a dynamic before (I think we will continue to lateralize ). We can already see the effect of this lateralization on the volume profile. The red lines on it represent the evolution since I posted this idea.
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