Short

CHF / JPY - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES

Mis à jour

This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG-post that will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas.

> With this, I generate an educational SERIES, where you, as a reader, learn - ACTIVELY - from the analyses, decisions & interaction <

In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT scenario in the > CHFJPY <

We focus on the KEY technical points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming days.

As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION *

The all-time high, of 1979, was breached in mid-May and confirmed as support three times since then.

In most price action indicators, one can see a momentum loss, which will be reflected in the price action in the near term.

In the 2-day chart, one can already see a clear "bearish divergence", which can no longer be overlooked in the 1-day chart.

Intraday, this requires a SHORT - SWING - entry, but caution is advised - it is still not unlikely that we could still see an upward movement.

# Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT

*Additional information will be added as comments to this blog to give you the most value possible.

If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Transaction en cours

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We received the new data from the EU Main Refinancing Rate, which was neutral.
> In the following, the "Monetary Policy Statement" was held, which predicted a very dark future for the EUR.
> For this reason, the correction in the USD ended and a strong sell-off in the EUR took place.

Why has this had an impact on the CHF?
> The CHF is part of the DXY = 3,6 %
> With the rising USD and the falling MAJORS it creates also pressure on the already leaking momentum in the CHF.

In the following chart, you can see all the relevant support and resistance areas.
> The CHF - 3H close, was extremely bearish

Note

VOLUME SUPPORT

Note

The daily candle closing is absolutely brutal.
> Some news comes out over the next 12 hours, however, I personally can not imagine that this candle is defeated for now.
> In any case, this is a clear sign, for the still coming Sell-off.

Note

INTRADAY - LEVEL UPDATE
> The new data brought volatility, but did not leave a significant impression.
> The price will start high after such a strong sell-off.
> After that we will most likely continue the correction

Note

POSSIBLE INTRADAY - SCENARIOS

Note

The candle closing leaves it open to what the next week will look like.
> In the Daily TF's there's a retest and a strong BUY reaction.
> In the Weekly TF's we have also a strong BUY reaction & a indecisive candle

DAILY (1) CLOSE = RETEST

DAILY (2-3) CLOSE = STRONG BUY REACTION

WEEKLY CLOSE = BEARISH - BUY REACTION

2-WEEK CLOSE = INDECISIVE

Note

4 H - SCENARIES

Note

All important resistances were broken through, and it almost looks as if we will make another high before the journey continues down.
= I hope, of course, that you took the 2.9% SHORT profit and realized profits.

Nothing has changed on the HTF - view, the bearish divergence continues to form and would thus go into Phase 3 (3x touches).

Transaction en cours

Our SL was not triggered, and we should now continue with the Sell-off.
> the Red line was the old top (LQ) where Liquidty was briefly taken to now continue the move.

Note

The monthly close has taken place, and the following candle was received.

> The candle looks anything but the confirmation for the SHORT thesis, but it needs a small correction.
> The Bullish candle has finally turned into a Doji, reflecting the onset of investor uncertainty.
> We could see a correction here before we see another move higher.

Note

The market needs to make a decision now - SELL or LONG

Note

We got the "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change" numbers from the USA, which were really positive for the USD.

With that, the USD dominance (DXY) will continue to rise until we see the next CPI data tomorrow.
= pressure on all other markets related to it

Note

HTF = Still an indecisive Candle close
tradingview.com/x/Elu8wDtg/a

Note

The market should show little volatility until today's news events:
> USD - Unemployment Claims (in 4 hours)
> USD - ISM Services PMI (in 6 hours)

There will be extreme volatility at these events, so caution is advised.

Note

USD - Unemployment Claims
= Neutral data release / we need to wait for the ISM for bias

Note

USD - ISM Services PMI
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility for a correction got higher.

Note

All markets seem to be gathering liquidity right now and waiting.
= Ranges have formed, and we can say the direction only when a range is significantly broken, with confirmation of the range.

Tomorrow will be published 3x relevant American economic data, the results of which the market will wait with great anticipation.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> Non-Farm Employment Change
> Unemployment Rate

Note

Mixed data print - as a consequence we should see a mixed market reaction and volatility over the next few hours.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
= PRO < USD
> Non-Farm Employment Change
= CONTRA > USD
> Unemployment Rate
= PRO < USD

Note

The DAY - candle close has turned out bearish:
> The price hit the 0.328 FIB (of the whole movement), which is why I assume a Bullish reaction in the intra-day, at the beginning of the week.
> The probability speaks rather for a further down-sale next week, however, the candlestick closure is under very low volume enstanden, which is why is still cautious announced, regarding BIAS change.

Note

Maybe an inverted head and shoulders, but we need to wait:

Note

SL got triggered for everyone who was still in the trade. I would wait now until we see a confirmed break from the RANGE - that ongoing liquidity collection should soon be over.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BULLISH (DOJI)
> Still closed under the Resistance Line of the last top
> Today Intra-day correction and then continuation of upwards move or continuation of collecting liquidity

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = CPI data
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BULLISH / INDECISIVE
> Closed over the Mid-Resistance Line of the HTF-Channel.
> Doji candle indicates indecisiveness, but it broke through the previos candle close which means strength.
> This strenght exist low, if you look at the intra-day volume.
> I'm sure that we will see today with the USD event, a significant direction move.
> In which direction - no one can predict, we need to wait for the data.

Note

Valid until CPI:

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 2 HOURS

Note

The "FOMC meeting" revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is very likely to want to continue its restrictive course.
> Furthermore, criticism regarding the approach is becoming louder and louder, as a monetary policy that is too tight would have very negative effects.

ZielIstDieAutarkie

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