Possible strong trend change in oil

Oil is at a critical chart crossroads with the Light Crude Oil contract flirting with an upward break of the strong long-term downtrend line “K” that has been passing through the $73 area in the last two sessions. On Friday morning when the article was written, the contract was trading at $72.90.

A possible now confirmed upward break of this line will make it difficult for the contract’s sellers as it will have the power to open the way to $76. Above that, the price of $80 per barrel will “flash”.

On the other hand, however, the apparent inability of oil to pass above $73 and the “K” will mark a third consecutive exhaustion peak, pushing the contract back below $69.

It is of course best not to attempt to push oil prices above $76 because it will begin to "undo" the positive scenario of further weakening inflation.