CRV - behind or ahead of the curve?

1 avr.

If that count towards a new low plays out, I'd be looking at 52 cents and below.

Alternative count, similar short-term conclusion:



Alternative conclusion, that's significantly more bullish in the short-term:

12 avr.

Note

So far we have not created a new low, so the bullish interpretation shown in the last image of the previous post is still very possible (and very bullish) with two very deep wave 2s:



The invalidation would be taking out the lows.

As for the bearish view targeting 52 cents there are quite a few ways to count the structure at this point, a few examples:

Triangle B wave:



Diagonale C wave, though still too early to call here:



Unfinished impulse to the downside, that could be missing an extension in the 5 of the 5. While wave 4 would be a bit big here compared to wave 2, we did have a weekend inbetween there:

13 avr.

Note

That most certainly went deep. Expanding diags do tend to correct deep though, so that still fits.

At this point it very much looks like the mentioned missing extended wave 5 was delivered and what an extension it was:



It wicked deep, but the daily close actually ended around 48 cents, which is the lower border of the 48 - 52 cent zone I had on the chart from the start.

As long as we don't take out the low at 38.6 cents, the analysis still holds.

14 avr.

Note

With the local low taken out, this idea has been invalidated.

The last hold for a bullish view is now that a new global low hasn't been made (yet), so you can assume a complex correction like this:



or something less complex that's possibly not finished yet like this:



Either way invalidation is if the global low gets taken out. I'm gonna sit on the sidelines on this one for now.