?DENTUSDT to peak around $0.05 before BTCUSD peaks?
Mis à jour
• DENT has many similarities with LRC.
• One, both been depreciating against both BTC and ETH.
• Two, I’ve doubts about their real life use cases.
• Three, both are bubbly assets which I picked up during BTCUSD’s Consolidation Phase.
• Four, both do not acquiesce easily to TA (especially for short-term trading).
• Regarding the last point. I suspect the main contributing factor to be TradingView’s limited data for DENTUSDT. The earliest data is from Aug’19.
• However, a reasonable TA can be accomplished if we obtain DENTUSDT’s ATH of $0.10060 during the previous bullrun from CoinGecko, and compare DENTUSDT together with DENTBTC.
From the DENTBTC chart:
• During the previous bullrun, the 8.236 Fib from DENTBTC’s 1st peak to bottom brings us to 0.000007032, very close to her 2nd peak of 0.000006890.
• *My gut sense* is that with the pandemic, and DENT’s delayed launch of her eSim, DENTBTC will not fare as well as the previous bullrun when DENT was pumped up by the ICO hype. DENTBTC may very well only hit the 0.786 Fib level of 0.0000003169.
• Note: DENTBTC just turned bullish with the 8WSMA crossing over the 21W EMA.
From the DENUSDT chart:
• The 2.272 Fib from DENTUSDT’s peak during the previous bullrun to her bottom in Mar’20 gives us $0.022772. This is very close to DENTUSDT’s 1st peak during this bullrun of $0.022700.
• *If history is any indication*, applying the same 2.272 Fib to this bullrun’s 1st peak will give us a theoretical 2nd peak of $0.049589.
Putting both together
• *Assuming* our calculations to be accurate, 0.0000003169 BTC and a 2nd DENTUSDT peak of $0.049589 suggests that DENTUSDT will peak at around the point when BTCUSDT is at 156.5K.
• *Assuming BTCUSD macro trends persist*, DENTUSDT will peak before BTCUSD peaks.
• This $0.05 DENTUSDT peak may seem like an overly conservative target as it nears, and DENT moonbois may point out that DENTBTC has not surpassed its ATH of 0.000007032. RSI may also not reach overbought levels.
• However, as with many things, I’d rather be wrong but rich.
• One, both been depreciating against both BTC and ETH.
• Two, I’ve doubts about their real life use cases.
• Three, both are bubbly assets which I picked up during BTCUSD’s Consolidation Phase.
• Four, both do not acquiesce easily to TA (especially for short-term trading).
• Regarding the last point. I suspect the main contributing factor to be TradingView’s limited data for DENTUSDT. The earliest data is from Aug’19.
• However, a reasonable TA can be accomplished if we obtain DENTUSDT’s ATH of $0.10060 during the previous bullrun from CoinGecko, and compare DENTUSDT together with DENTBTC.
From the DENTBTC chart:
• During the previous bullrun, the 8.236 Fib from DENTBTC’s 1st peak to bottom brings us to 0.000007032, very close to her 2nd peak of 0.000006890.
• *My gut sense* is that with the pandemic, and DENT’s delayed launch of her eSim, DENTBTC will not fare as well as the previous bullrun when DENT was pumped up by the ICO hype. DENTBTC may very well only hit the 0.786 Fib level of 0.0000003169.
• Note: DENTBTC just turned bullish with the 8WSMA crossing over the 21W EMA.
From the DENUSDT chart:
• The 2.272 Fib from DENTUSDT’s peak during the previous bullrun to her bottom in Mar’20 gives us $0.022772. This is very close to DENTUSDT’s 1st peak during this bullrun of $0.022700.
• *If history is any indication*, applying the same 2.272 Fib to this bullrun’s 1st peak will give us a theoretical 2nd peak of $0.049589.
Putting both together
• *Assuming* our calculations to be accurate, 0.0000003169 BTC and a 2nd DENTUSDT peak of $0.049589 suggests that DENTUSDT will peak at around the point when BTCUSDT is at 156.5K.
• *Assuming BTCUSD macro trends persist*, DENTUSDT will peak before BTCUSD peaks.
• This $0.05 DENTUSDT peak may seem like an overly conservative target as it nears, and DENT moonbois may point out that DENTBTC has not surpassed its ATH of 0.000007032. RSI may also not reach overbought levels.
• However, as with many things, I’d rather be wrong but rich.
Commentaire
• I would really like to claim credit for DENTUSDT and DENTBTC's current apparent break out, but that would be undeserved. • Nonetheless, DENTBTC's bullish crossing of MAs last week was already giving us hints.
• DENT's pumps are usually preceded by a 2 week long bullish but low profile price action.
• *If* both DEBTBTC and DENTUSDT maintain their bullishness this and next week, then the week after would be interesting.
Commentaire
• Trendline tested, held and DENTUSDT formed a higher low on the weekly.• 8W SMA tested and held.
• Is the 0.06550 resistance level next to be tested and confirmed as support?
Commentaire
• DENTUSDT is indeed testing the $$0.06550 resistance level. • It may confirm it as support now, or it may fail. It does not matter in the long run.
• What is of note is the mathematical beauty of DENTUSDT's systematic testing.
• For those of a more pragmatic bend, it is also an important indication that we have identified the appropriate top and bottom to base our Fib levels on. DENTUSDT's current price action is inconsequential compared to the greater confidence that we now have in our thesis.
Commentaire
• In healthcare, a patient is usually sent through a series of "medical workup" upon admission. What this usually entails is a series of history taking, diagnostic investigations, hypothesis formation and testing in order to arrive at a diagnosis. • I'm similarly subjecting DENTUSDT to a series of investigations to properly identify E-Waves.
• The testing of $0.06550 tells us that we have accurately identified Waves A-C. But that was simple. Let's now verify if we are indeed in Wave 3, and identify which particular sub-wave we are in.
• This seems like a possible candidate:
Commentaire
• Just an update to show how our Fib levels have held up.• DENTUSDT's recent price action is also a reminder of how risky it is to trade short-term.
• There were calls for LONGs to $2+ just a few days ago based on various indicators and patterns.
• However, 1) crypto is extremely volatile, including big caps such as BTC, but especially small caps such as DENT; 2) all coins still follow BTC (thus adding to the multifactorial nature of DENT's price action and consequentially lower the accuracy of any short-term forecast); and 3) DENT is a naughty boy and his price action lags indicators by around 2 weeks.
• It's often (but not always) better to trade long-term. There is little FUD or FOMO during these statistical fluctuations because I DCAed in around Jul'21 according to BTCUSD's macro trends.
• This allows me to analyse DENT's behaviour during these fluctuations and better understand his personality (our true self often comes out during times of adversity).
• Maybe that's why I've just changed the pronoun I use for DENT from "her" to "him"?
Commentaire
• tradingview.com/u/sherooo/ , in a comment below, suggested that Wave 5 may bring DENTUSDT to at least $0.10.• Unfortunately, tradingview.com/u/sherooo/ did not elaborate further when asked.
• Nonetheless, if I may hazard a guess, tradingview.com/u/sherooo/ was referring to the 4.764 Fib level as per the chart below.
• However, there are several reasons against such an optimistic forecast.
1. The 1st peak in this bullrun was at the 2.272 Fib level. My forecast is similarly based on this level, which brings us to $0.0496.
2. DENT has been depreciating against BTC. $0.0496 is reasonable *assuming* DENTBTC continues this trend of depreciating against BTC.
• Individual elements in any TA forecast (forecast, and not prediction, mind you) have rather low probabilities, especially so for volatile assets such as cryto, and even more so for small caps such as DENT. This is why I trade long term and seek confluence of at least 3 points in order to gain a reasonable advantage.
Commentaire
• Since 2021, DENTUSDT's pumps all occurred when 2 criteria are met.• Firstly, weekly MACD positive.
• Secondly, daily MACD positive for at least 14 days.
• We just have to be patient.
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