The clear impact of policies on the economy & the stock market
Mis à jour
What drives the market in general over the long term is rather simple.
On the inflation adjusted chart in particular we can see how the stock prices were impacted by the policies of Reagan and Clinton (which continued the same policies but under another name because they are from a different party).
It is enormous, explosive, impossible to miss. As you can see in the 2nd screenshot I placed below the stock market topped during the bush era, and then went straight up immediately after Obama became president. If this is a coincidence it is a really big one.
Republicans, of course it is their job, will point the finger to discredit the democrats, but the evidence shows that neither side has a magical secret to fix the economy or is more "neutral". One must not look at the party but the specific policies they are going for. It is straightforward, if they make it easy to conduct business then the ticker prices will go up. Otherwise stagnate or go down. And it is not super long term. The stock market bottom and then went up up up 1 year after Reagan became president. As always no one knows there is a bottom until much later (with the exception of Bitcoin perma bulls, they always know there is a bottom no matter what 😄) so it was only apparent Reagan "fixed the economy" until just before re-election, he got lucky it was very close. Clinton did a good job with business and also the only president in a long term to reduce debt/gdp. Then the stock market/inflation reached a top in January 2000, 1 year before Bush election, and what might have been a pullback - or a crash - inside of an uptrend, ended up being a 8-9 years bear market that bottomed and went up then crashed once again.
On the comical side, the last president before Trump to only serve 1 term was democrat Jimmy Carter that also said mean things to congress.
Since Caesar crossed the Rubicon not much has changed in this area...
Trump was demonized and fought and they did all they could to kick him out and he was with the republican party, while Jimmy Carter was a democrat that fought congress. Democrat presidents do not get a special pass. No matter their party, men in suits will go see them and tell them "this is how we run things here" and if they rebel they will be terminated. Republican senators have to support Trump if they want their electorate to keep voting for them. Plus it's their guy. Retired candidates and presidents (Gore, Mitt Romney) have not supported Trump.
1rst screenshot:
2nd screenshot:
Other than the simple to understand and witness the effect of policies, there is another driver of markets and economy: demographics, the study of a population age, culture, race (oh I am not touching this subject 😁), cohesion, natural resources, the weather, depression rates...
On the site of the Bank for International Settlement (the central bank of central banks) an article about demographics:
"Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends"
bis.org/publ/work656.htm
An example of this is Japan: no matter how hard they try to print economic growth, their aging depressing demographics caught up with them and they are on the slowdown/decline.
*****************************
A bit of speculation now! It's nice to look at the past, but let's apply this to the future.
The USA
Biden is good for business on paper, economically he is more far right than Trump - it is on social matters that he leans way more left than Trump. Demographic changes and too much immgration is bad for business but this is harder to prove and hurts people feelings so good luck with your research I do not have much interesting getting into it. Now there is something to follow carefully: it seems a war could happen inside of the democrat party that has welcomed socialists in its rank. Also Trump might stick around, democrat voters that are so eager to close their eyes on evidence of fraud are giving Trump a justification to stick to power. Another thing that could happen is Biden dies or goes to the hospital. And yet another thing is he might do a complete 180, no one knows what his goals are he said 1 thing 1 day then the opposite another, the price is going up despite the uncertainty maybe billionaire investors close to politicians know something we don't, I wish I bought more stock indice options.
Europe
This is for now part speculation, part proven reality already (it will be 100% proven reality soon): Europe is printing but also immigrating economic growth. But now they have issues and french socialists themselves have said they saw no way to avoid segregation (they used the word partition instead). If all falls apart do I need to explain to indicator traders that the prices won't go up?
Nationalists feel reassured, once the economy of average age 45 Europe collapses, the economic refugees will all leave, and the average age will go even further up, and we will lose a lot of workers (Europe will keep the benefits refugees of course, but the workers will leave).
All will be left after the economic collapse and exodus of economic migrants looking for job will be tens of millions of old or very old people, millions of angry and non-integrated benefits refugees, and no one left to produce anything. What will Europe do to get out of this hellhole? Take on debt? 😂😂😂!!! In reality I see no solution: they will not be able to take of their old, unless a miracle happens the old will be left to take care of themselves (to die). Ans destroying the economy recently sure has not helped. "wE hAvE tO sAvE LivEs!".
Europe is once again a powder keg 🔥🔥🔥.
On the inflation adjusted chart in particular we can see how the stock prices were impacted by the policies of Reagan and Clinton (which continued the same policies but under another name because they are from a different party).
It is enormous, explosive, impossible to miss. As you can see in the 2nd screenshot I placed below the stock market topped during the bush era, and then went straight up immediately after Obama became president. If this is a coincidence it is a really big one.
Republicans, of course it is their job, will point the finger to discredit the democrats, but the evidence shows that neither side has a magical secret to fix the economy or is more "neutral". One must not look at the party but the specific policies they are going for. It is straightforward, if they make it easy to conduct business then the ticker prices will go up. Otherwise stagnate or go down. And it is not super long term. The stock market bottom and then went up up up 1 year after Reagan became president. As always no one knows there is a bottom until much later (with the exception of Bitcoin perma bulls, they always know there is a bottom no matter what 😄) so it was only apparent Reagan "fixed the economy" until just before re-election, he got lucky it was very close. Clinton did a good job with business and also the only president in a long term to reduce debt/gdp. Then the stock market/inflation reached a top in January 2000, 1 year before Bush election, and what might have been a pullback - or a crash - inside of an uptrend, ended up being a 8-9 years bear market that bottomed and went up then crashed once again.
On the comical side, the last president before Trump to only serve 1 term was democrat Jimmy Carter that also said mean things to congress.
Since Caesar crossed the Rubicon not much has changed in this area...
Trump was demonized and fought and they did all they could to kick him out and he was with the republican party, while Jimmy Carter was a democrat that fought congress. Democrat presidents do not get a special pass. No matter their party, men in suits will go see them and tell them "this is how we run things here" and if they rebel they will be terminated. Republican senators have to support Trump if they want their electorate to keep voting for them. Plus it's their guy. Retired candidates and presidents (Gore, Mitt Romney) have not supported Trump.
1rst screenshot:
2nd screenshot:
Other than the simple to understand and witness the effect of policies, there is another driver of markets and economy: demographics, the study of a population age, culture, race (oh I am not touching this subject 😁), cohesion, natural resources, the weather, depression rates...
On the site of the Bank for International Settlement (the central bank of central banks) an article about demographics:
"Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends"
bis.org/publ/work656.htm
An example of this is Japan: no matter how hard they try to print economic growth, their aging depressing demographics caught up with them and they are on the slowdown/decline.
*****************************
A bit of speculation now! It's nice to look at the past, but let's apply this to the future.
The USA
Biden is good for business on paper, economically he is more far right than Trump - it is on social matters that he leans way more left than Trump. Demographic changes and too much immgration is bad for business but this is harder to prove and hurts people feelings so good luck with your research I do not have much interesting getting into it. Now there is something to follow carefully: it seems a war could happen inside of the democrat party that has welcomed socialists in its rank. Also Trump might stick around, democrat voters that are so eager to close their eyes on evidence of fraud are giving Trump a justification to stick to power. Another thing that could happen is Biden dies or goes to the hospital. And yet another thing is he might do a complete 180, no one knows what his goals are he said 1 thing 1 day then the opposite another, the price is going up despite the uncertainty maybe billionaire investors close to politicians know something we don't, I wish I bought more stock indice options.
Europe
This is for now part speculation, part proven reality already (it will be 100% proven reality soon): Europe is printing but also immigrating economic growth. But now they have issues and french socialists themselves have said they saw no way to avoid segregation (they used the word partition instead). If all falls apart do I need to explain to indicator traders that the prices won't go up?
Nationalists feel reassured, once the economy of average age 45 Europe collapses, the economic refugees will all leave, and the average age will go even further up, and we will lose a lot of workers (Europe will keep the benefits refugees of course, but the workers will leave).
All will be left after the economic collapse and exodus of economic migrants looking for job will be tens of millions of old or very old people, millions of angry and non-integrated benefits refugees, and no one left to produce anything. What will Europe do to get out of this hellhole? Take on debt? 😂😂😂!!! In reality I see no solution: they will not be able to take of their old, unless a miracle happens the old will be left to take care of themselves (to die). Ans destroying the economy recently sure has not helped. "wE hAvE tO sAvE LivEs!".
Europe is once again a powder keg 🔥🔥🔥.
Note
Joe Biden on CNN: "If I reach something where there is a fundamental disagreement we have based on a moral principle I'll develop some disease and say I have to resign."So... ye...
Uncertainty + high prices = no investing.
It's just going to go down for 20 years or more I already know it.
Nothing to invest in, just short term trade, watch our backs, invest in 20 years in countries that are not a complete mess...
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